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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Denver +159 over Cincinnati

4:30 PM ET. The Bengals are on life support. To make the playoffs, they need to win out and have the stars align with a half-dozen other results going their way. That desperation has the market leaning on Cincinnati as a home favorite, but this isn’t a bet on their playoff hopes. The Bengals’ defense has been opportunistic, generating nine takeaways over their last two games, but turnovers are fickle and they cannot be counted on from game to game. Banking on them to mask the deficiencies of a unit that allows 5.8 yards per play (28th in the league) is asking for trouble.

The Broncos, meanwhile, have exceeded expectations this year. Under Sean Payton, they’ve gone from perennial doormats to playoff contenders with a 9-6 record. The offense, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, has found its rhythm, and while last week’s collapse against the Chargers was painful, it also highlighted the explosive potential of this team. Scoring 21 points on their first three drives against L.A. showcased what they can do when Payton’s game plan clicks.

The real edge here, though, comes from Cincinnati’s precarious position. Zac Taylor is coaching for his job, and while that might inspire some teams, it often leads to tight play and poor decisions. Taylor’s Bengals are notorious for starting slow, a pattern they can’t afford against a Denver team that thrives on early momentum. If the Broncos jump out to an early lead, the weight of Cincinnati’s circumstances could become too much to overcome. In a game where the spread is shaped by narratives around desperation and home-field advantage, we’re fading both. Broncos outright is the call.

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