Pinnacle +6 -109 BET365  +6 -110 Sportsinteraction +6 -110  888Sport +6 -110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New England +6 over L.A. Chargers

1:00 PM EST. It’s easy to understand why the Chargers are priced as a considerable favorite in this spot. They’re 9-6, on the brink of a playoff berth, and riding high after a season-saving rally against Denver last week. They boast the NFL’s stingiest scoring defense, an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert, and a freshly crowned National Championship-winning coach in Jim Harbaugh.

However, let’s not get swept away by the glitz surrounding the Chargers. Yes, they’re 9-6, but this team has a knack for inconsistency. Their defensive metrics, while flashy in the points-per-game column, mask deeper flaws. Allowing 338 yards per game (15th in the league) shows that teams can move the ball on them; they just haven’t capitalized in the red zone. Meanwhile, their vaunted offense has shown cracks, with Herbert tossing two interceptions over the past two games and struggling to sustain drives against a vulnerable Denver defense last week.

The Patriots, for all their struggles, aren’t the complete disaster their record suggests. They’ve been competitive in recent weeks, covering in two of their last three, including a narrow 24-21 loss to Buffalo as significant underdogs. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of brilliance, throwing a touchdown in seven straight games and completing nearly 68% of his passes—a rookie mark just shy of Dak Prescott’s record. While Maye’s growing pains are evident, his ability to keep the Patriots in games shouldn’t be underestimated.

The Chargers are spotting road points in a “must win” game and the market is eating that narrative up. Throw in the distractions of traveling cross-country, and this has all the makings of a potential letdown for Los Angeles. The Patriots are capable of winning this game outright, but taking the generous points is the prudent play here.

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