Posted Friday at 3:00 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 17

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, December 29

Week 17

New Orleans -105 over Las Vegas

1:00 PM ET. The Raiders ended a 10-game losing streak last week with a 19-14 victory over Jacksonville, but let’s not confuse that with a sign of progress. That game was more about survival than skill, as Las Vegas benefited from playing an equally struggling opponent. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has been vocal about wanting his team to compete despite their woeful draft positioning, but effort alone won’t overcome the glaring issues plaguing this team. The Raiders have been one of the league’s worst offenses, ranking 29th in points per game and failing to top 20 points in six of their last seven outings.

Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off an outright disaster—a 34-0 drubbing at the hands of the Packers on Monday night. That performance was a low point in a season already trending downward, as Spencer Rattler led an offense that gained just 196 yards and turned the ball over twice. Injuries have gutted New Orleans as well, with Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Taysom Hill all missing time or playing through ailments.

There's no sugarcoating the lackluster results, as the Saints’ offense has managed just 47 points over their last four games, and their 2-5 home record suggests they haven’t been able to use the Superdome as a fortress. However, this game represents a chance for redemption, and pride has to come into play after such a humiliating loss.

The market has priced New Orleans as a home underdog, a reflection of their recent struggles and a perceived edge for Las Vegas after their rare win last week, but this feels like a prime buy-low spot for the Saints, whose defense remains respectable and should be enough to contain a Raiders team that struggles to generate offense under the best of circumstances. Las Vegas has little business being favored on the road against anyone in this league. The Saints’ shutout loss is fresh in everyone’s mind and their value couldn’t be more depressed. That’s where we step in. Recommendation: New Orleans -105

Tampa Bay -8 -1110 over Carolina

1:00 PM ET. Carolina is fresh off a 36-30 overtime victory against Arizona that officially eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention. While the Panthers have shown flashes of competitiveness, they remain a 4-11 team mired in their seventh consecutive losing season. The Panthers’ road woes are glaring, as they’ve gone 1-14 straight up in their last 15 away games, making them one of the NFL’s least reliable road teams over the past two years.

The Panthers’ Bryce Young has shown flashes of brilliance, including a 298-yard effort in the first meeting with Tampa Bay, but inconsistency and a lack of support around him remain issues. Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, coming off a career-best 152-yard, two-touchdown performance, will face a stiff test against a Tampa Bay defense that held him to just 43 yards on 12 carries in their previous meeting. The Buccaneers took the first game this season in a tight 26-23 overtime victory in Week 13, but that close result is even more of a reason to spot the points here with the Bucs. So is the fact the Cats have covered six of their last seven games

Tampa Bay’s recent form has been strong despite last week’s loss. Baker Mayfield threw for 303 yards against Dallas, his highest output in seven weeks. With the Bucs losing to the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football spotting in this range might not be easy, but that’s the point. Prior to last week’s hiccup, the Bucs had won four in a row, including a 40-17 dismantling of the Chargers in Week 15. Tampa is capable of scoring in bunches and Carolina is riding just a little too high late in the season. This is a game where the Bucs can name their number. Swallow the points. Recommendation: Tampa Bay -8 -110

Philadelphia -7 -110 over Dallas

1:00 PM EST. The Eagles stumbled last week in a wild loss to Washington, snapping a franchise-record 10-game winning streak. That loss was fueled by misfortune at quarterback, as Jalen Hurts left the game with a concussion, and backup Kenny Pickett was knocked out shortly after, leaving Philly shorthanded at the most important position. Even with that, they lost by just three.

The Cowboys may be 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but that stat comes with a big asterisk. Those wins came against teams like the reeling Giants and the hapless Panthers. That said, let’s talk turkey--the Cowboys are done. They’ve been officially eliminated from playoff contention, and this is their final road game of the year. They may talk about playing for pride or finishing with a winning record, but the reality is they’re a banged-up team with a lame duck head coach and no motivation to go all out. CeeDee Lamb is nursing a shoulder injury and could be shut down and key defenders like Eric Kendricks are also out or limited, leaving a defense already vulnerable to the run in an even worse position.

Dallas has been playing with house money since Dak Prescott’s injury. Cooper Rush deserves credit for steadying the ship, but let’s not pretend he’s anything more than a serviceable backup. His early struggles against Philadelphia in Week 10 were glaring, as the Cowboys were blown out 34-6 at home. The Eagles’ defense dominated, holding Rush to 45 passing yards on 13 completions.

The Eagles already humiliated Dallas earlier this season, steamrolling them 34-6 in Arlington. That was with Cooper Rush at quarterback, who managed just 45 passing yards in one of the worst QB performances of the year. While Rush has been better lately, let’s not fool ourselves into thinking he’s anything more than a mediocre backup. Philly’s defense dominated him once and will do so again. Recommendation: Philadelphia -7 -110

N.Y. Jets +10 -110 over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. Let’s start with Buffalo. Yes, the Bills are 12-3 and playoff-bound, but this team isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders. Last week, they escaped with a 24-21 win over a New England team that is as bad as its 3-12 record suggests. The Bills gave up a 14-0 lead early and needed 24 unanswered points to claw their way back. That’s not exactly the kind of dominance you’d expect from a team laying double digits.

Buffalo’s defense has been uncharacteristically shaky, especially on third downs. New England converted 7-of-12 third-down attempts last week, exposing a Bills unit that has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. While Buffalo is capable of big plays on both sides of the ball, they’ve also shown a tendency to play down to their competition, as evidenced by a string of close games against AFC East opponents. In fact, three of their four division wins have come by exactly three points, including a 23-20 victory over these same Jets back in Week 6 in a game the Jets actually outgained the Bills on offense.

The Jets, meanwhile, are a mess at 4-11, but they haven’t stopped competing. Last week’s 19-9 loss to the Rams looks bad on paper, but it was a bizarre game in which the Jets didn’t punt once yet still managed just nine points thanks to a comedy of errors on fourth down and a missed field goal. That said, the Jets are not the story here, it’s the Bills who have bigger fish to fry and and their eye on a much bigger prize. Beating up on the lowly Jets here is like picking on your little brother because you have nothing else to do. Gang Green has nothing to lose, which makes them a potentially annoying underdog in this spot, just like your little brother. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +10 -110

Indianapolis -7½ -110 over New York Giants

1:00 PM ET. We must begin with the Giants and their flirting with historic futility at home, where they are staring at the possibility of becoming the first NFL team to go 0-9 at home, which is both astounding and a testament to just what a dumpster fire they have been.

Speaking of garbage fires, the G-Men will trot out Drew Lock at quarterback again. Lock has been dreadful, completing just 52.7% of his passes with one touchdown and four interceptions this season. Perhaps the best stat about Lock is the $5-million the Giants paid him to be the backup this season which is money they refused to give to Saquan Barkley. Whoops. As for Lock, he’s also dealing with a sore shoulder, but head coach Brian Daboll insists on rolling with him instead of Tommy DeVito. Does it matter? Furthermore, Adding to New York’s woes is a lengthy injury list that includes rookie standout wide receiver Malik Nabers, who is a game-time decision with a toe injury.

The Colts made a statement last week in a 38-30 win over Tennessee in which they rushed for a jaw-dropping 355 yards. Jonathan Taylor looked every bit the part of an elite back and not the goof that gave away the game in Denver in Week 15, by steamrolling his way to 218 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. If you can rush for 355 yards in an NFL game, it’s a testament to complete dominance at the line of scrimmage—that’s bad news for a Giants team that appears to have rolled over and died.

There may be some hesitancy to spot road points like this with the Colts considering their injury report includes quarterback Anthony Richardson, who is questionable with back and foot issues, but it hardly matters who lines up under center for Indy this week in the swamp. The Colts could find a capable pivot to get by the Giants in just about any backyard football game they might come across on their way to MetLife.

The Colts might be clinging to a faint hope of making the playoffs, but even if their postseason dreams are dashed before kickoff, the Giants are a dead horse that is primed to be beaten. Badly. Recommendation: Indianapolis -7½ -110

Jacksonville -110 over Tennessee

1:00 PM ET. Let’s get the obvious out of the way: neither team is “supposed” to want to win. A higher draft pick is the carrot dangling in front of both franchises, but that narrative doesn’t hold water when you’re dealing with professional athletes and coaches fighting for their jobs. Jacksonville, in particular, has too much pride and a bit too much talent to roll over here.

The Jags have unearthed a budding star in rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. He’s been a revelation, torching defenses over the past three weeks with 27 catches for 323 yards. Tennessee’s secondary has been a revolving door all year, and Thomas is poised to exploit it. Backup quarterback Mac Jones has been serviceable, leaning on Thomas and keeping the offense moving despite a skeleton crew around him.

The Titans are a mess. They’ve dropped seven straight, and while their offense has shown occasional life under Mason Rudolph, he’s also a turnover machine. Rudolph threw three picks last week, each more devastating than the last. Tennessee leads the NFL in turnovers with 32, a glaring indictment of their inability to protect the ball. That’s not something you fix in Week 17 with a patchwork offensive line that’s allowed 47 sacks this season.

Don’t buy into the “Tank Bowl” narrative or the idea that this is a toss-up. While the Titans continue to unravel like a bad sweater, the Jaguars are finding glimmers of hope in their young talent. A coin flip this is not. Recommendation: Jacksonville -110

Cleveland +6½ -110 over Miami

4:05 PM ET. When you’re in the business of betting, you know that perception is everything. The Dolphins, fresh off a 29-17 win over San Francisco, are riding the wave of public confidence. They’ve got a high-powered offense, a flashy quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, and household names like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, however, it was not those star players who led the Fish over the ‘Niners it was the foot of kicker Jason Sanders, who made five field goals.

Let’s stick with Miami. While the Dolphins are technically still alive in the playoff race, their postseason hopes rely on a convoluted sequence of outcomes, including losses by the Chargers, Broncos, and Colts. By the time this game kicks off, Miami may have already been eliminated from the postseason. That’s not an ideal mindset for a team that struggles to win on the road in cold-weather games.

Meanwhile, the Browns are playing out the string, but this is their home finale, and pride can’t be discounted. Kevin Stefanski is coaching for his job—even if ownership says otherwise—and Dorian Thompson-Robinson gets another chance to prove he belongs in the league. The Browns' rookie quarterback struggled last week, but Cincinnati’s defense is far superior to Miami’s. The Dolphins rank 26th in sacks and are tied for 22nd in interceptions, meaning Thompson-Robinson will have more time and less pressure to work with.

Let’s also consider the spot. This is a quintessential “fat and happy” game for Miami. They looked great last week, but that win came at home, under ideal conditions, against a 49ers team playing with a backup quarterback. Now they travel to Cleveland, where temperatures are expected to hover near freezing. Tua’s performance in cold-weather games has been dismal, and Miami’s offense has historically sputtered in less-than-perfect conditions.

On the other hand, Cleveland has nothing to lose and can at best, play spoiler and at worst (if Miami is already out) put the stamp on another disappointing season in South Beach. Misery loves company and all that. There’s a very real chance Miami’s season ends with a whimper in the frosty air of Cleveland. Recommendation: Cleveland +6½ -110

Minnesota +1 -110 over Green Bay

4:25 PM ET. The Packers’ blowout win over New Orleans is sure to grab headlines, but context matters. Green Bay dominated a Saints team that looked utterly drunk. That shutout says more about the Saints unpreparedness (or disinterest) than it does about the Packers dominance. The NFL is a week-to-week league, and what happens in prime time often distorts market perception.

That distortion is why Green Bay is favored on the road in Minnesota, despite clinching a playoff spot on Monday and having little room to move up on the playoff seedings because of the loaded NFC North that has then a full two game behind the Vikes and Lions. Green Bay cannot win the Norris and so the highest they can finish is sixth behind the four division winners and either the Vikes or Lions. The Pack can still drop to the #7 spot, but a road Wild Card game is a road Wild Card game, no?

Minny, meanwhile, continues to fly under the radar despite sitting at 13-2 and holding one of the best home records in the NFL at 7-1. The Vikings have been winning consistently, yet they’re not receiving the same level of praise as teams like Philadelphia, Detroit or even Green Bay. Why? You know why and his name is Samuel Richard Darnold, whose name still carries the stigma of his time with the Jets, but this version of Darnold is playing the best football of his career. He’s efficient, composed, and supported by an arsenal of weapons, most notably the best wide receiver in the game, Justin Jefferson, who torched Seattle last week for 144 yards and two touchdowns.

Let’s forget the narrative about what the Vikings “have to play for,”na top seed, a bye, and the chance to sweep their biggest rival in Green Bay and let’s focus on the fact the Packers need this game like they need a hole in the head. We would not be surprised if a strong early push or a punch in the mouth by the Vikings might knock some sense into the Green Bay coaching staff and lead to the Vikes winning in convincing fashion. Recommendation: Minnesota +1 -110

Atlanta +4 -110 over Washington

8:15 PM ET. The NFL is built on chaos, well money, but also chaos and we’re that in full effect with Sunday night's. We’ll begin with Washington. The Commanders are coming off an emotional, come-from-behind victory over a hated division rival in Philadelphia. It was the kind of win that can fuel a team—or drain it. As for motivation, that could change dramatically for the ‘Manders depending on what happens earlier in the day. If Carolina beats Tampa earlier in the day, Washington will clinch a spot. However, even if Tampa wins, Washington's playoff prospects are still strong, which makes this game more about jockeying for position than survival.

Then there’s Atlanta. The Falcons have quietly clawed their way into a division lead and have everything to play for. A win, coupled with a Tampa Bay loss, clinches the NFC South and a home playoff game. If the Bucs win, the Falcons will need to match them, again, the results of that afternoon game between Carolina and Tampa will dictate where the winds blow in the market for this SNF affair.

The market perception here is skewed by Washington’s flashy win over Philadelphia and Atlanta’s up-and-down season, but as we mentioned above, that perception could change depending on what happens in the early window. That said, the Falcons are likely to be even more undervalued here if the Panthers beat the Bucs. Recommendation: Atlanta +4 -110