Pinnacle +6 -110 BET365  +6 -110 Sportsinteraction +6 -110 888Sport +6 -110

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Houston +6 over Baltimore

4:30 PM ET. The market perception of these two teams couldn’t be more different. Baltimore is riding high after a commanding 34-17 win over Pittsburgh, locking in a playoff berth and looking every bit the contender with Lamar Jackson at the helm. Meanwhile, Houston is licking its wounds after losing Tank Dell for the season in a 27-19 loss to Kansas City. That’s how we end up with this inflated number, which asks Baltimore to win by a full touchdown on the road against a Texans team that has been resilient all season.

The Ravens’ offensive explosion against Pittsburgh was impressive, but it’s also the kind of performance that creates market overreactions. Baltimore racked up 418 total yards, with Derrick Henry running wild for 162 of them, but let’s not ignore context. Pittsburgh’s defense was riddled with injuries, and the Steelers were coming off an emotional letdown after losing their grip on the AFC North. Baltimore now faces a much stiffer test against a Houston defense that ranks third in the NFL in opponent yards per play and is particularly adept at limiting the run.

Houston is being dismissed here, but this team has punched above its weight class all year. C.J. Stroud has been a revelation at quarterback, and while the losses of Stefon Diggs and Dell sting, the Texans still have viable weapons. Nico Collins ranks 17th in the league in receiving yards, and the Ravens’ secondary, which ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game, is a liability. Stroud doesn’t need a superstar supporting cast to move the ball effectively against this defense.

The narrative surrounding Baltimore’s road dominance (8-3 ATS in their last 11 away games) will draw plenty of action, but let’s not ignore the other side of the coin. The Texans have been undervalued at home all season, and this is a spot where their defense and an underrated passing game can keep them competitive. This is a classic case of buying low and selling high. Baltimore’s stock is soaring after last week, while Houston is being written off after a tough loss to the Chiefs, but the Texans are far more equipped to hang in this game than the market suggests.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------