Pinnacle +14 -101 BET365  +14 -110 Sportsinteraction +14 -110 888Sport +14 -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Orleans Saints +14 over Green Bay

8:15 PM ET. At first glance, backing the Saints in this spot feels like a fool’s errand. Green Bay is on the brink of locking up a playoff berth, riding a heater with wins in eight of their last 10 games. Jordan Love is red-hot, the Packers are scoring at will, and they just obliterated the Seahawks in Seattle. Meanwhile, the Saints are fielding a patchwork lineup, led by rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, and limping into Lambeau with a 5-9 record, officially out of postseason contention.

The Packers have been dominant, no doubt, but they’re also overvalued. Green Bay is laying a full two touchdowns in a game where they don’t need to dominate. Clinching a playoff berth is the priority, and with games against Minnesota and Chicago looming, Green Bay is more likely to play this one conservatively, protecting key players and doing just enough to secure the win. That leaves a massive backdoor open for a Saints team that has been surprisingly competitive under interim head coach Darren Rizzi.

New Orleans has held opponents to 21 points or fewer in five straight games, thanks to a defense that continues to fight despite the team’s abysmal season. The Saints recorded a season-high eight sacks against Washington last week, and Cameron Jordan looks rejuvenated, setting a franchise record for multi-sack games.

Spencer Rattler, the presumed starter for New Orleans, showed flashes of poise last week, nearly leading a miraculous comeback against Washington. While he’s far from polished, Rattler has enough mobility and playmaking ability to keep the Saints within striking distance. The Saints’ ground game, even without Alvin Kamara, can find success against a Packers defense that’s banged up and ranks middle-of-the-pack in rush defense DVOA.

Ultimately, this number is a reflection of perception, not reality. The Packers are good, but they’re not two touchdowns better than a scrappy Saints team that refuses to roll over. If Green Bay comes out and dominates from start to finish, we’ll tip our cap. But the Saints have enough defensive talent and offensive potential to hang around and sneak in the backdoor if needed.

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