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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Carolina +5 over Arizona

1:00 PM EST. There’s a simple truth about the Cardinals: they aren’t built to sustain success, yet the market continues to inflate them as if they’ve arrived. Sure, the Cards snapped a three-game skid with a win over New England last week, but a 30-17 victory against a spiraling Patriots squad is hardly a resume booster. Now they’re on the road, giving points, in a “must-win” situation? We’ll gladly take the inflated number on the Panthers in this spot.

Arizona’s season has been a tale of inconsistency. Kyler Murray’s play has been sporadic at best, with just four touchdowns and five picks over his last six games. Murray’s mobility, once his defining strength, has been neutralized by defenses that have caught on to the Cardinals' predictable schemes. James Conner had a big day against New England, but that performance was the exception, not the rule. Asking this team to deliver as inflated road chalk, with their playoff hopes dangling by a thread, is a bridge too far.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are 3-11 and have been largely written off by the public. That’s precisely where we see value. Despite their record, Carolina has shown signs of fight, keeping three of their last four losses within single digits against the likes of Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. This is a team playing with house money and nothing to lose, making them a dangerous underdog at home.

This game sets up as a classic “trap” for Arizona. The Cardinals are in a must-win spot, traveling cross-country, with playoff aspirations on the line, but these situations often create immense pressure, and Arizona hasn’t shown they can deliver under it. There’s no better spot to fade a fraudulent favorite than this. The Cardinals are being overvalued because they are the team with something to play for while the Panthers are being undervalued because they don’t. We’ll gladly grab the points with a live home dog.

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