Pinnacle -3½ +103 BET365  -3½ -105 Sportsinteraction  -3½ -105 888Sport  -3½ -105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Kansas City -3½ +103 over Houston

4:30 PM ET. The Chiefs find themselves in a familiar position as short home favorites, and while the market is largely focused on Patrick Mahomes’ ankle and Houston’s recent defensive efforts, there’s a significant edge here that the oddsmakers aren’t accounting for. The Texans, fresh off clinching the AFC South, are being overvalued, while the Chiefs’ recent ATS struggles have created a perfect buy-low scenario on one of the league’s elite teams. As for Mahomes’ ankle? Don’t buy into the noise. The Chiefs’ medical staff is among the best, and Mahomes’ full participation in practice this week is a clear indication that he’s ready to go.

Let’s start with Houston. Yes, they’ve won two straight and are riding high after forcing four turnovers against the Dolphins last week. But take a closer look at those victories: a floundering Jets team in Week 14 and an uninspired Miami squad coming off a string of lackluster performances. The Texans’ offense, meanwhile, has been a shell of itself. CJ Stroud managed just 131 passing yards against Miami, and the Texans produced a meager 181 total yards. That’s not going to cut it against a Chiefs defense that has quietly become one of the league’s stingiest, allowing just 17 points per game over their past four outings.

Stroud’s offensive line woes are a massive concern. He’s been sacked 45 times this season, second-most in the NFL, and now faces a Kansas City front seven that sacked Jameis Winston five times last week. The Chiefs' pass rush is relentless, and their ability to create pressure will likely force Stroud into quick decisions, which could lead to turnovers or drive-stalling plays.

Kansas City’s offense has admittedly been pedestrian by its standards over the past three weeks, but context matters. At home, the Chiefs remain a different beast, and this week they could get a boost with the potential return of Hollywood Brown. Mahomes’ ability to distribute the ball effectively is second to none, and even at less than 100%, he’s still a massive upgrade over most quarterbacks in the league.

Now consider the situational angle. Houston has nothing left to prove in the regular season. They’ve clinched their division, and their seeding is unlikely to change significantly. Coach DeMeco Ryans has publicly stated that the Texans won’t change their approach, but actions speak louder than words. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are still looking for top spot in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs’ recent struggles against the spread are masking their true form. This line should be higher, making this deflated price an absolute gift.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------