Posted Friday at 3:00 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 16

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, December 22

Week 16

Cleveland +8½ over Cincinnati

1:00 PM ET. Cleveland is coming off a miserable stretch, losing three straight and making yet another quarterback change. Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes the reins for the Browns, and while his professional resume is limited, he brings a spark that the beleaguered Jameis Winston could not, and at least he’s not likely to throw more interceptions than completed passes The Browns’ new quarterback may seem like a weakness, but it’s also an opportunity. Cincinnati hasn’t faced Thompson-Robinson this season, and that element of uncertainty can’t hurt.

On the flip side, the Bengals have clawed their way back into relevance with consecutive road wins over Dallas and Tennessee, but let’s not overvalue those victories. Cincinnati’s win over the Titans was a penalty-filled mess, with 14 infractions and three turnovers by the Bengals themselves. While Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are having career seasons, Cincinnati remains a deeply flawed team. The Bengals’ playoff hopes hang by a thread, and with that comes the pressure of perfection—pressure that often leads to mistakes.

The Bengals' two-game winning streak is masking their continued struggles. Before those wins, Cincinnati dropped four of five games, and those victories came against flawed opponents. The Bengals' secondary remains vulnerable, and their propensity to commit penalties and turnovers hasn’t magically disappeared. Playing under the weight of playoff aspirations only amplifies those cracks. Cincinnati’s 8½-point spread is an overreaction. This is a divisional matchup, where familiarity often breeds contempt in the form of tight games. Recommendation: Cleveland +8½

N.Y. Giants +8½ over Atlanta

1:00 PM ET. The Falcons are clinging to faint playoff hopes, but their decision to bench Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. speaks volumes about the state of their franchise. The word is that the call came from ownership, which says a lot considering just how much Cousins is getting paid. Meanwhile, Pentix Jr. found out about his ascension to QB1 while eating a $1.50 hotdog combo at Costco. 

Let’s stay with Atlanta. Six weeks ago, the Falcons were in the driver’s seat for the NFC South crown, boasting a 6-3 record and a two-game division lead. Since then, it’s been a nosedive. Cousins, their $180-million quarterback, has been dreadful, tossing just one touchdown against nine picks in his last five games. His uninspired performance against a lifeless Raiders squad on Monday Night Football (112 yards, one TD, one INT) was the final straw.

Penix, the eighth overall pick in this year’s draft, might be the future in Atlanta, but asking him to cover 8½ points in his first professional start is a tall order. The rookie has seen limited action in garbage time this season, completing 3 of 5 passes for 38 yards. Sure, he’s got a great arm and college pedigree, but let’s not ignore the fact that this is still a rookie quarterback thrust into a high-pressure situation against a Giants defense that, while bad, can bring just enough chaos to force mistakes.

On the other side, the Giants are a mess, but they’ve been this way all year. They’re not trying to salvage a playoff run or experiment with unproven talent—they’re just trying to finish the season without further embarrassment. Drew Lock is back under center after missing last week, and while he’s been ineffective in his starts this year (405 total yards, no touchdowns, two picks), he’s not being asked to win this game outright—just to stay within a generous number.

For the Giants, it’s ugly—but ugly doesn’t mean incapable. They’ve been blown out plenty, but they’ve also been competitive in spots, including narrow losses to Green Bay and Washington earlier this season. With Lock back and a stable of running backs that can grind out yards, the Giants can keep this game within reach against an Atlanta team that hasn’t earned the right to be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants +8½

Indianapolis +3½ over Tennessee

1:00 PM ET. The Colts are being overvalued because of their “slim playoff hopes,” but those hopes are more theoretical than practical. Indianapolis has dropped three straight against the spread (ATS) and has been exposed in critical moments, as evidenced by their collapse in Denver last week. Anthony Richardson’s erratic play has been a significant issue, and his 47% completion rate paired with 11 interceptions this season is a glaring red flag. Indianapolis has been outscored 62-26 over its last two games, and their offensive woes go beyond Richardson.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is playing with house money. They’re out of playoff contention, but that frees them from the psychological burden that the Colts are carrying. Mason Rudolph is far from elite, but he’s a steady hand compared to Will Levis, whose penchant for turnovers was a dagger to the Titans’ offense. Rudolph’s ability to manage the game is precisely what Tennessee needs in a contest like this, where one or two key plays could swing the outcome.

Divisional matchups are notoriously unpredictable, but we do know one thing–misery loves company and the Titans have a chance to put a dagger in the Colts' slim playoff chances. Furthermore, five of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by seven points or fewer, and two required overtime. Indianapolis is not built to blow teams out, and their recent form inspires little confidence. Finally, just how do the Colts overcome Jonathan Taylor’s boneheaded play that cost them the game in Denver last Sunday? That was a tough pill to swallow and a bounce back here is not guaranteed. Recommendation: Tennessee +3½

Seattle +2½ over Minnesota

4:05 PM EST. Seattle is in the thick of a playoff push, but last week's 30-13 shellacking at the hands of Green Bay in front of the football world on Sunday Night Football is fresh in the minds of the media and the market. Also potentially working against Seattle from a market standing perspective is the status of QB Geno Smith, who left the game on Sunday with an injury. However, Smith practiced in full this week and is expected to play in Week 16.

Seattle’s home struggles this season are well-documented, but this is a team that plays differently when their quarterback is on the field and in rhythm. Geno Smith, when healthy, has managed to mask the Seahawks' offensive line issues and keep them competitive. With Kenneth Walker III potentially returning to the backfield and rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as a reliable weapon, Seattle has enough firepower to test a Vikings defense that has thrived against weaker opposition.

The market’s fascination with the Vikings is understandable on the surface. A 12-2 record? Seven straight wins? Sure, it looks shiny and convincing, but let’s pump the brakes. Minnesota is masquerading as an elite team, and the public is eating it up. However, peel back the layers, and you’ll see a team built on smoke and mirrors, now being asked to go into one of the league’s toughest environments.

Minnesota has been skating by, plain and simple. Their road wins this season—5-1 outright—have come against the likes of the Giants, Bears, Titans, and Jags. Meanwhile, the rest of the Vikes record is padded with victories over the Bears (again), Falcons, Cardinals, Colts, Jets, and 49ers. In fact, Minnesota has exactly two wins over teams with a winning record (Packers and Texans). This isn’t a juggernaut, it's a team benefiting from an easy schedule (23rd) and a few fortunate bounces (+8 turnover ratio).

Seattle, on the other hand, is in desperation mode. Last week’s 30-13 drubbing in Green Bay was ugly, no doubt, but Geno Smith got banged up, and the Seahawks were left with backup Sam Howell, who looked completely overwhelmed. Now Geno is back, practicing in full, and we’re being offered points on a team that has its backs against the wall. That makes them dangerous. We’ll trust the Seahawks to rise to the occasion in a spot where the Vikings might be looking ahead to a date with the Packers in Minny next Sunday. Recommendation: Seattle +2½

Miami -1 over San Francisco

4:25 PM ET. We don’t need to rehash the litany of issues that have plagued both the Dolphins and 49ers this season. Injuries, offensive ineptitude, and squandered opportunities define what were once promising campaigns for these two franchises. What we’re left with is a Week 16 clash between a pair of 6-8 teams that are fighting not for playoff relevance, but simply to save face and perhaps finish the season with a modicum of dignity.

Both teams are licking their wounds after damaging losses last week. Miami fell 20-12 in Houston, leaving them two games out of an AFC Wild Card spot, while San Francisco’s 12-6 Thursday night loss to the Rams dropped them to last place in the NFC West at 6-8. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued both squads this season, but Miami seems better positioned to bounce back here.

The Dolphins and 49ers share identical 6-8 overall records and 5-9 ATS marks. San Francisco’s road woes have been glaring, going just 1-5 ATS, while Miami’s 2-5 ATS record at home isn’t much better. Still, Miami’s offense has shown sparks in recent home games, scoring at least 32 points in each of their last three outings.

Despite Miami’s documented issues against quality opponents, the Dolphins possess enough firepower to exploit the 49ers’ vulnerabilities. This isn’t the same San Francisco team that throttled Miami 33-17 in 2022. The personnel and circumstances have shifted dramatically. The Dolphins have shown they can light up the scoreboard at home, and with the postseason now an impossibility for both teams, Miami may approach this game with nothing to lose.

This market adjustment to Miami’s side is telling. The Dolphins have been abysmal ATS at home (2-5), which might be why the market is betting this line down from its open (Fish as -2½-point chalk). That said, Miami’s upside in this spot is too enticing to ignore. The Dolphins may be flawed, but in a battle of battered contenders, the edge lies with the home side and their ability to put points on the board in a way the 49ers simply cannot. Recommendation: Miami -1

New England +14 over Buffalo

4:25 PM ET. The Bills are the shiny sports car that everyone loves to gawk at—Josh Allen is an MVP front-runner, they’ve put up 40+ points in consecutive weeks, and they’re 6-0 at home, but underneath that glossy exterior lies a team that’s failed to play a full 60 minutes of football in weeks. Buffalo’s defensive lapses have turned what should be blowouts into barnburners.

Weather in Buffalo this weekend is expected to be cold with a chance of snow. This isn’t a fast-track dome game where the Bills' high-octane offense can flex its muscles. Ugly weather tends to level the playing field, favoring the underdog and the ground game. Furthermore, the Buffalo’s defense has been anything but elite. The Bills have given up 42 points to Detroit and 40 points to Los Angeles over the past two weeks. Yes, they’ve won both games, but not without allowing their opponents to hang around for far too long.

Let’s not sugarcoat this: the Patriots are bad. They’re 3-11 and in contention for the league’s worst record. But bad doesn’t mean incapable, and this bloated point spread assumes New England is completely incompetent—which they’re not. The Patriots have already covered twice as double-digit underdogs this season and they won outright in Cincinnati as a +9½-point pooch.

The psychology of this matchup also can’t be ignored. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East, and while they’ll pay lip service to maintaining intensity, it’s hard to imagine this team being laser-focused on running up the score against a 3-11 opponent. They’ve got bigger aspirations—like staying healthy for the playoffs. On the flip side, the Patriots are playing for pride and jobs. This is their Super Bowl. The Bills are being priced like a freight train, while the Pats are being treated like a derailed Amtrak. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Recommendation: New England +14

Dallas +4 @ Tampa Bay

8:20 PM ET. Dallas enters this game as a desperate team with nothing to lose. At 6-8, they’re mathematically alive for a playoff berth but fully aware of the long odds. Desperation breeds effort, and effort often translates to value at the betting window. The Cowboys are coming off a convincing win over the Panthers, where Cooper Rush threw for three touchdowns and Rico Dowdle gashed Carolina’s defense for 149 rushing yards. However, a win over the Panthers is about as valuable as a three-dollar bill and the narrative that the Cowboys can’t hang with playoff-caliber teams has taken root.

The Buccaneers are riding high on a four-game win streak, and Baker Mayfield has been showered with praise for his Pro Bowl-level play. Tampa’s offense, which has put up 40 points in back-to-back games, is clicking. Mike Evans continues to torch secondaries, and Todd Bowles’ squad is touted as a lock for the NFC South. Yet, beneath the surface, cracks are showing. Turnovers have plagued the Bucs during this run, with seven giveaways in their last three games. Mistakes like these are killers against a Cowboys team that thrives on creating havoc, as evidenced by their six sacks and four takeaways last week against Carolina.

Tampa Bay’s offensive fireworks last week against the Chargers were impressive, but let’s not forget how quickly momentum can shift in the NFL. To that point, the Bucs have changed roles this week too, as they were pooch in L.A. and now they are road chalk in Big D, a much different scenario. The key here is the market perception. The Bucs led by a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield, are being priced like an elite team. Meanwhile, Dallas, with a backup quarterback and slim playoff hopes, and a head coach who everyone expects to be fired is being dismissed. In summary, the Bucs are being overvalued, and the Cowboys are being undervalued. Recommendation: Dallas +4