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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Denver+2½ over L.A. Chargers

8:15 PM ET. Denver has turned its season around with a four-game win streak, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been instrumental in that resurgence. While Nix has had his share of growing pains (including three interceptions last week), his confidence and playmaking ability have galvanized the Broncos offense. More importantly, Denver’s defense has been dominant during this stretch, forcing turnovers at a league-leading clip and stifling opposing offenses.

Denver’s Week 6 loss to the Chargers—where they trailed 23-0 before a furious comeback attempt—offers critical context for this rematch. Bo Nix was still finding his footing in the league at that point, and the Broncos were a team searching for an identity. Fast forward to now, and Denver is one of the hottest teams in football, playing with a swagger and resilience that was missing earlier in the season.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are heading in the opposite direction. A once-dominant defense that allowed just 15.9 points per game through 12 weeks has been exposed in recent outings, culminating in a disastrous 40-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Los Angeles gave up a staggering 506 yards of offense to the Buccaneers and failed to generate any sort of pushback in the second half. Injuries to key players, including guard Zion Johnson and cornerback Cam Hart, only compound the Chargers’ problems.

Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert remains one of the NFL’s elite passers, but even he has shown cracks lately, throwing his first interception in over two months last week. The Chargers’ rushing attack has been virtually non-existent, and with J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve, their ground game lacks explosiveness. That one-dimensionality plays directly into the hands of Denver’s defense, which has been lights out against the pass.

Finally, situational trends favor Denver as well. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and are playing with house money as they surge toward a potential playoff berth. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight but have failed to inspire confidence during a stretch in which they’ve lost three of four outright. The Chargers are a flawed team spotting points in a matchup where the underdog has every reason to believe they can win outright.

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