Pinnacle +5½ +102 BET365 +5½ -105 Sportsinteraction +5½ -105 888Sport +5½ -105

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Las Vegas +5½ +102 over Atlanta

8:30 PM ET. The Falcons as nearly a touchdown road chalk?! Get the f**k outta here. Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins leads an offense into Sin City that is averaging a paltry 14.3 points per game over the last four weeks. Cousins has tossed eight interceptions without a single touchdown during the losing streak, and six of those picks came in just the last two games. Sure, Falcons coach Raheem Morris has faith in Cousins, but blind faith doesn’t cash tickets and the Raiders are team with nothing to lose. Furthermore, the Dirty Birds have dropped four straight, failing to cover in all of them, and now the market wants to trust them to win and cover on the road against another NFL team, even if it is the lowly Raiders? This is the textbook example of a team being priced wrong because of the market’s perception on what it going to motivate both sides.

Las Vegas has been brutal, sure. A nine-game losing streak is nothing to gloss over, but this team isn’t laying down. The Raiders have been competitive in spots, and their nine-game slide provides value here as we’re catching inflated points. Public sentiment assumes Las Vegas is a complete mess because of its win-loss record, but in this league, perception creates opportunity.

The Raiders' quarterback situation isn’t ideal, but it’s not as catastrophic as it seems. Desmond Ridder is a wild card—but in this case, unpredictability might work in our favor. Dude also has a chip on his shoulder, as the Falcons threw him out like a piece of trash after drafting Ridder in the third round out of Cincinnati in the 2022 draft.

Finally, the line itself screams “trap.” Atlanta hasn’t earned the right to be this kind of favorite. They’ve failed to cover four straight, they’re shaky at best offensively, and their QB is in free fall. Meanwhile, the Raiders are being treated like a doormat simply because of their record, but teams with nothing to lose are dangerous—especially against teams that haven’t proven they can handle expectations.

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