Posted Friday at 3:00 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 15

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, December 15

Week 15

New York Jets -3½ +103 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. It takes a special kind of team to generate less enthusiasm than the New York Jets, but somehow the Jacksonville Jaguars are managing it. That these two 3-10 squads are still playing football is a testament to the NFL’s scheduling policies, not their viability. But while this game won’t feature playoff implications, it does feature a very exploitable line, as the Jets are undervalued favorites in this spot.

Let’s start with Jacksonville. The Jaguars' 10-6 win over the Titans last week was less a victory and more of a slog through ineptitude. It’s not often you see a team win a game in which they score just one touchdown and rack up only 218 yards of total offense. But that’s the story of Jacksonville’s season—offensive futility. Over their past four games, the Jags have averaged a dismal 10.8 points, ranking them near the league basement in scoring.

Trevor Lawrence is gone, and while Mac Jones can move the chains in spots, his two interceptions last week are indicative of the struggles he’s had since taking over. Jones is operating without his top weapons, including Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, and could also lose tight end Evan Engram this week. Simply put, Jacksonville doesn’t have the personnel to threaten consistently, and it’s hard to trust a team to cover against anyone when they can’t put points on the board.

The Jets aren’t exactly lighting it up, but they’re in a far better position to dominate the flow of this game. The narrative around New York has been one of disappointment, but let’s not ignore the quality of their losses. They’ve dropped their last three games by a combined 12 points, with one being an overtime thriller against the Dolphins. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been vintage Rodgers, but he’s still playing solid football, throwing for 339 yards last week and looking like he’s on the verge of breaking out against a weaker defense.

Lastly, there’s the number itself. Laying 3½ points might seem dicey given the Jets’ struggles this season, but context matters. The Jags haven’t covered as home underdogs in their last six attempts when getting three or more points. In fact, they’ve lost all six outright by an average of nearly two touchdowns. Recommendation: New York Jets -3½ +103

Kansas City -4 -109 over Cleveland

1:00 PM ET. There are dozens of reasons not to bet the Chiefs as road chalk, as this isn’t the dominant force we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Ten of their 12 wins this season have come by seven points or fewer, and they haven’t covered a spread in seven weeks, going 0-7 ATS over that stretch. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, however, this feels like the right spot for a statement game.

Kansas City’s offense is due for a breakout (right, right?!). After being held under 20 points in three of their last five games, Andy Reid’s squad knows the importance of hitting their stride before the postseason. Mahomes has cleaned up his turnovers, throwing 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions over his last six games, and his chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins continues to grow. Hopkins has been targeted 18 times in the last two games and has two touchdowns in his last three outings. It just so happens Cleveland’s secondary ranks 30th against No. 1 wide receivers. Giddyup, Patrick.

The Browns’ offense has shown life recently, averaging 378.2 yards over their last five games, but their execution remains inconsistent. Jameis Winston has been serviceable, but his nine interceptions in six starts underscore a tendency to treat the ball like a stinky diaper. The Chiefs face a brutal schedule stretch with three games in 11 days, but this is the softest opponent in that run, as the Browns' defense ranks in the bottom third of the league against both the run and the pass.

This line opened at Kansas City -6 before being bet down to a deflated -4, providing additional value on the favorite. The Chiefs are overdue for a convincing win, and with their pedigree for putting up points in bunches in question. That has us eager to swallow these deflated points in a game that shouldn’t be as close as the line suggests. Recommendation: Kansas City -4 -109

Dallas +2½ +105 over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. While they are just 3-10, the Panthers are on the market’s radar because Carolina has covered five straight spreads and kept their last three losses within one possession. That said, the Panthers are still a flawed team struggling to find consistency on both sides of the ball. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young has shown some progress over the past month, but his season totals of seven passing touchdowns and seven interceptions highlight the offense's continued inefficiency.

Meanwhile, Dallas enters this game on a short week after a 27-20 loss to Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. While the Cowboys' playoff hopes are dwindling, this team has been competitive in recent weeks, with three straight one-possession games. Running back Rico Dowdle has been a revelation, recording back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and Cooper Rush has managed the offense well in Dak Prescott's absence, even if his recent numbers haven’t been flashy.

The line initially opened as a pick-em but the “efficient market” has taken a stand and pushed Carolina to the chalk. While Carolina has played close games, those have largely come against high-powered teams like Kansas City and Philadelphia, where the Panthers played the role of overlooked underdog. This is a different scenario, with the Panthers now carrying the weight of being a rare favorite. That role reversal is not one they are well suited to. Recommendation: Dallas +2½ +105

N.Y. Giants +16½ -105 over Baltimore

1:00 PM ET. We might as well get the Giants out of the way, as they are a team we’re told is in complete disarray. They’ve lost eight straight and are down to third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito, as Drew Lock was last seen in a walking boot. Here’s the thing: the G-Men are not nearly as bad as this line suggests. Last week versus New Orleans, they lost on a blocked field goal that should have been a penalty. That was just the latest in a year of bad bounces and calls for the Giants, who have lost seven games by eight points or less.

The Ravens are fresh off a bye, sitting in prime playoff position, and have their sights set on a potential division title. They also have a huge matchup looming next week—a standalone Saturday night game against their archrival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens know that their path to the AFC North crown runs through that Week 16 showdown. Everything about this game against the Giants feels secondary in comparison.

The media narrative is clear: Baltimore is the far superior team. Lamar Jackson is an MVP candidate, Derrick Henry is piling up yardage, and the Ravens’ defense is capable of smothering opponents. However, laying 16½ points on the road is a massive number that asks for a blowout, and that’s where the cracks start to show. Moreover, Baltimore hasn’t covered a spread this large since 2022. As good as they are straight up, they’re just 6-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.

This is a textbook look-ahead spot for the Ravens. With Pittsburgh on deck, Baltimore’s focus will naturally drift toward the game that matters most. They don’t need style points here—they just need to win and move on. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants +16½ -105

New Orleans +7½ -106 over Washington

1:00 PM ET. At first glance, the line here seems to reflect the tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Commanders are riding high after dismantling Tennessee 42-19 before their bye and now Washington sits at a surprising 8-5 which might catch the market’s eye, but it’s built on shaky foundations. While the Commanders rank fourth in points per game (28.9), they’ve been defensively vulnerable, allowing 29.3 points per contest during their recent three-game skid. Their 42-point outburst against the Titans was more a reflection of Tennessee’s ineptitude than Washington’s dominance.

The Saints, meanwhile, continue to grind out results despite a revolving door at quarterback and a rash of injuries. With Derek Carr sidelined, Jake Haener is expected to make his first NFL start. While that might seem like a red flag, it could actually be an opportunity for the Saints to embrace a simplified, run-heavy game plan that minimizes mistakes and chews up clock. As for Haener, he was a 4th-round pick in 2023 after coming out of Fresno St where he started 10 games in 2022 throwing for over 2800 yards with 20 TDs and just 3 INTs.

The Saints’ defense also deserves more credit than it’s getting. Over their past four games, they’ve allowed an average of just 15.5 points, and they’ve shown a knack for rising to the occasion against high-powered offenses. Washington’s Jayden Daniels may have the spotlight as a Rookie of the Year candidate, but his four interceptions over the past three games show he’s not immune to rookie mistakes.

Situationally, this game screams letdown for Washington. The Commanders are fresh off a dominant win and are likely looking ahead to bigger challenges as they chase the Eagles in the NFC East. The Saints, on the other hand, are scrapping for every inch as they try to stay alive in the NFC South. At home, in front of a loud and hostile crowd, they won’t lack motivation against a beatable invader. Recommendation: New Orleans +7½ -106

Miami +2½ +107 over Houston

1:00 PM ET. The Texans have been steady but unspectacular in recent weeks, failing to record back-to-back wins in their past seven games. Their victory over Jacksonville before the bye was hard-fought, but a closer look at that game and Houston's recent home form raises red flags. Houston has dropped its past two home games outright and covered the spread in just two of seven contests at NRG Stadium this season.

On the other side, the Dolphins are heating up. Miami’s 6-7 record doesn’t inspire much confidence at first glance, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. After a dreadful 1-3 start without Tua Tagovailoa, Miami has rebounded to win four of its past five games, averaging a blistering 28.4 points per contest over that span. Tagovailoa has been the catalyst, tossing 14 touchdown passes in his last six games, including a heroic effort in last week’s 32-26 overtime win against the Jets.

The situational angle also heavily favors Miami. The Texans are looking ahead to a brutal stretch: three games in 11 days, including matchups against Kansas City and Baltimore. Meanwhile, Miami’s season is on the line right now. Desperation can be a powerful motivator, and with the oddsmakers offering the Dolphins a field goal cushion, it’s clear they see Miami as a live dog here.

Lastly, consider the mindset. Miami has been playing with a sense of urgency, rallying from deficits and grinding out wins. Houston, by contrast, feels a little too comfortable. The clinching scenarios, the division title talk—it’s all noise. The Dolphins catching points against a flawed opponent. This number is short for a reason, and it’s not because the Texans are undervalued. The oddsmakers are telling us Miami has a real chance to win this outright, and we’re inclined to agree. Recommendation: Miami +2½ +107

Tampa Bay +2½ +107 over L.A. Chargers

4:25 PM ET. The Chargers are coming off a tough divisional loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in a game they could’ve won but didn’t. That has been the story for the Super Chargers for what feels like decades. At 8-5, L.A. is clinging to an AFC Wild Card spot, but inconsistency continues to plague a team that always seems to underperform relative to its talent.

The Chargers’ defensive stats are shiny—first in the league in points allowed (15.9 per game)—but they’ve benefited from facing an unusual mix of inept offenses. Against more capable attacks, they’ve been exposed. Kansas City didn’t pile on points last week but controlled the game when it mattered most.

Offensively, Justin Herbert’s health is a question mark after sustaining multiple injuries against the Chiefs. Herbert didn’t practice Wednesday, and while head coach Jim Harbaugh insists he’ll do everything to play, his effectiveness could be compromised. Even at full strength, Herbert has been far from elite this season, ranking 17th in passing yards with a pedestrian 2,764. In 2024, the Chargers’ offense has struggled to find rhythm. Furthermore, this line suggests that Herbert will play and so we’ll proceed as such.

The Chargers are 9-4 ATS this season, but this line assumes they’re in better shape than they are. Their 15.9 points per game allowed on defense is impressive on paper, but a deeper dive reveals they’ve padded those stats against bottom-feeders like Tennessee, Cleveland, and New Orleans.

On the other hand, Tampa’s offense, led by Baker Mayfield, has found its groove. Mayfield ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (3,329), is tied for third in touchdown passes (28) and has the Buc's offense ranked fifth with almost 28 PPG. Despite injuries to his top two targets Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Bucs have had playmakers step up, including Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, and rookie Bucky Irving. The Bucs are proving once again that this is a “next man up league”.

To close, the Chargers are notorious for finding ways to lose winnable games. Their inability to close creates uncertainty and makes the Bolts a weak favorite. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have thrived in an underdog role covering games against both the 49ers and Chiefs over the last five weeks. The points on offer here are generous considering the Bucs are more than capable of winning this game outright. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +2½ +107

Buffalo +2½ -104 over Detroit

1:00 PM ET. Buffalo comes into this game off a gut-wrenching 44-42 loss to the Rams, where Josh Allen put on a historic performance that was ultimately wasted by the Bills' porous defense. Giving up 457 yards and failing to force a single turnover is a recipe for disaster, but let’s not overreact to just one game. Outside of that blip on the radar in Week 14, over the last nine games, Buffalo allowed just 10 points three times and more than 23 points just once in a 30-27 win over Miami back in Week 9.

The Lions are the talk of the NFL, boasting an 11-game win streak and the league’s highest-scoring offense (32.1 PPG). Jared Goff has been outstanding, and Dan Campbell’s aggressive, go-for-it mentality has galvanized his team. On paper, Detroit deserves every bit of its hype as the NFC’s top contender and while the Lions may be riding high, Campbell’s aggressive style walks a fine line. Last week’s narrow escape against Green Bay, despite their struggles, is evidence of how quickly things can turn when risks don’t pay off. The Lions have thrived in shootouts, but asking them to outduel an equally explosive offense led by a more dynamic quarterback is a tall order.

Finally, there’s value in fading market perception. The Lions are the trendy pick as the league’s “it” team which inflates their stock and this line. Furthermore, Buffalo’s struggles against the Rams are fresh in the market’s mind and those warts were on full display in front of a huge audience, as that was the feature game in the late window last Sunday. Of course the Bills can win this game in Detroit, but the points are a nice cherry on top. Recommendation: Buffalo +2½ -104