Early leans & analysis Wk 6
Early leans & analysis

Posted Friday at 4:30 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 6

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, October 13

N.Y. Jets +2½ -110 over Minnesota

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London, England

Jacksonville +2 -110 over Chicago

9:30 AM EST. Ho-hum, it’s another early kickoff from Jolly Old London Town, which does nothing for us from a wagering perspective for several reasons, as there are dozens of variances at play in these games that are not there for those not played at an international destination. Furthermore, these games in London often produce poor efforts from one or both sides, which we saw last week when the Vikings beat the Jets 23-17. Sure, the Jets are making all the headlines this week, but the Vikes were not sharp in that contest either. That said, the NFL will never put the quality of its product ahead of making a buck.

As for the two teams that will play in this game, we might as well start with the 1-4 Jaguars, who have made London their second home and will play there both this week and next. Jacksonville finally got off the schneid in Week 5, knocking off the severely short-handed Colts, 37-34. It was a victory by the slimmest of margins, as the Jags needed a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds to play to edge out the Joe Flacco-led, Jonathan Taylor-less Colts.

Meanwhile, the Bears took care of business at home, but that win did come over the hapless Panthers, so take it with a grain of salt, too. The Bears are now 3-2 while also posting a 3-1-1 record Against the Spread (ATS), with their wins coming over Tennessee, the L.A. Rams, and Carolina, and their losses coming on the road at Indianapolis and Houston.

We’re not going to spend any more time on this game because we are not going to bet on it, and there are so many other, better potential plays on the board. The NFL can enjoy their tea and crumpets because we’re not participating in this charade, and we can’t recommend enough that you don’t either. If forced to make a play, we’ll side with the Jags because at least they’ve been here before on multiple occasions. Recommendation: Jacksonville +2 -110

Washington +6½ -109 over Baltimore

1:00 PM EST. We get it. The Browns aren’t an elite team, and you know what? That suits us just fine here because the Commanders are still not being given the credit they deserve in the market. Under head coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the Commanders are a different outfit from years ago. Few head coaches have the respect of Quinn around the league, and few head coaches have a bigger chip on their shoulders than Quinn, as he has been the butt of every joke about a blown lead since his Falcons blew one of the greatest leads of all time in the biggest of games, the Super Bowl.

The Commanders are now 4-1, both Straight Up and Against the Spread, but they are not being given the respect that should come with such a solid start. Sure, their stock might be up a touch, but the media and the market have not caught up to just how good this team is. They aren’t just winning games; they are running roughshod over squads the last three weeks. In Week 5, the Brownies went down 34-13. In Week 4, it was the upstart Cardinals, 42-14, on the road in Arizona. In Week 3, Washington also went on the road, in Cincinnati, and beat up the Bengals in a 38-33 final that flattered the home side greatly, as the Commanders were up 12 with 2 minutes to play before Cincy popped in a garbage touchdown with 40 seconds on the clock.

Baltimore might be the established side here, and there are going to be inevitable comparisons between Daniels and Lamar Jackson, but those comparisons are not fair to Daniels. Yeah, you read that right, we’d rather have the rookie than the reigning MVP on our side, and it’s not close. Jackson’s limitations are known after seven years in the league. The dude is not a prolific passer, while Daniels has already shown flashes of being an elite QB through the air.

Of course, none of that is part of the narrative after Jackson made a highlight-reel play versus the Bengals on Sunday in which he recovered a botched snap, stiff-armed a defender deep in the backfield, and then tossed a touchdown. It was a crazy play, but it was also a fluke, and it could have gone very badly had the Ravens not gotten the bounces. That play, and about a dozen lucky breaks, allowed Baltimore to win that game in overtime, but those plays are never discussed. The Ravens were so fortunate to leave Cincy with a win in Week 5 that it’s not funny.

This "Battle of the Beltways" has many threads to pull, but at the end of the day, it’s big brother meets little brother, as the Commanders have played second fiddle to the Ravens for years now. One has been consistently good year over year, and the other has been the former Football Team, which has been an embarrassment more often than not over the last two decades. It will take time for that perception in the market to change, but change it will. However, until the market catches up with just how good the Commanders are, there is going to be great value to be had along the way. That’s the case again here in Week 6. Climb aboard, there’s still a bit of room on the Commanders bandwagon, but it won’t last long. Recommendation: Washington +6½ -109

Arizona +5½ over Green Bay

1;00 PM EST. Kyler Murray will get the headlines, but you have to tip your cap to what Jonathan Gannon continues to do with this Cardinals' defense. Player-for-player from purely a talent perspective, Arizona's defense is likely bottom-3 in the league. The Cardinals' defense is last in the league in success rate allowed and last in the league in passing success rate allowed. However, Gannon has been masterful at making halftime adjustments. In Week 2 against the Rams, the Cardinals' defense held Los Angeles to seven points in the second half. In Week 3 against the Lions, the Cardinals' defense held Detroit scoreless after halftime. Last week against the 49ers, the Cardinals' defense held San Francisco scoreless after halftime. You may not have a lot of talent and your advanced metrics may stink, but if you hold the Lions, 49ers and Rams to seven combined points in six quarters, you're doing something right. 

The person who's not doing something right at the moment is Jordan Love. Most analysts gave him the benefit of the doubt when he returned from injury two weeks ago and needed to shake off some rust. He's not getting that same treatment after last week's performance against the Rams. The Packers went 1-for-8 on third down and Love was 15-for-26 through the air with one of the worst pick-six interceptions you will ever see. Until we see more from Love and Green Bay's offense, we are not comfortable laying this price with them. We mentioned that Arizona's defense was last in success rate allowed and last in passing success rate allowed. Well, Green Bay's defense is No. 29 and No. 30 in those two categories. Aside from the X’s and O’s, Green Bay’s stock is creeping up and frankly, it’s not warranted. Recommendation: Arizona +5½ 

New Orleans +3½ -110 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. There are two things worth noting in this game. The first is that the Saints are going to be starting rookie Spencer Rattler in place of the injured Derek Carr, who was hurt in the Saints' Monday Night Football loss to the Chiefs. The other point really worth noting here is that the Saints opened as a +2½-point underdog with the status of Carr in doubt. However, when he was officially ruled out and the fifth-rounder Rattler was named the starter for Week 6, the market took a stand and faded the Saints, pushing this line to the number you now see posted.

Further fueling the market to side against the Saints is an injury report that is a mile long. Aside from Carr, seven other players missed some practice time this week, including Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed, guards Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick, and defenders Pete Werner and Will Harris. Not all are expected to miss this game, but their status is part of the narrative driving the market to bet on the Buccaneers.

As for Tampa, they have been off since playing on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 5, where they lost a thriller to the Falcons, 36-30, in overtime. We’ll also note that the Bucs have had their schedule uprooted this week due to the terrible storms in the Southeastern United States, which forced them to travel to New Orleans on Tuesday, where they have been practicing at Tulane University. Head coach Todd Bowles put it best when describing what his team was dealing with: "We got the team out. We got their families out. We got their pets out and everything else. Family is the most important thing right now. You can replace material things."

Situationally speaking, there is obviously a lot going on here, but there has undoubtedly been an overreaction in the market to the status of the Saints' QB room, while there has been an underreaction to all of the outside, real-life drama the Bucs have had to deal with this week. Many may not know what they are going to be coming home to, and if they do, it’s probably not positive. We’ve all seen the images of the damage Hurricane Milton has done in the Tampa/Clearwater area, leaving Tropicana Field without a roof. It’s the Saints or nothing here for so many reasons. Recommendation: New Orleans +3½ -110

Cleveland +9½ -105 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. Who the f**k are the Eagles to be spotting a price like this to the Browns? Sure, Cleveland is a dumpster fire, but the Iggles aren’t much better. They just didn’t have their warts on display last week because they were on a bye. In case anyone forgot, the last time we saw Philadelphia was Week 4, when they got flatlined by the Buccaneers, 33-16, in Tampa Bay. The Eagles are just 2-2 both Straight Up (SU) and Against the Spread (ATS), with their wins coming by just five points in a game versus the Packers in Brazil and three points in Week 3 at New Orleans. They also lost a close game to the Falcons in Week 2, where they allowed Atlanta to march down the field and score the game-winning touchdown with 34 seconds left.

The Browns are a total mess—there’s no getting around that—and we saw the same thing last week everyone else in the market saw: Cleveland’s total no-show in Washington against the Commanders. The Brownies were a +3-point pooch in that game and were embarrassed, 34-13, with QB Deshaun Watson taking most of the heat for his less-than-spirited performance on the field, which included taking seven sacks and going just 15-of-28 for 125 yards and a major. If there was one positive, it was that Watson didn’t throw an INT.

There’s no sugarcoating just how bad the Browns have been so far this season. They are 1-4 both Straight Up and Against the Spread (ATS), and there might not be a team whose stock has taken a bigger tumble than Cleveland’s. Full disclosure, we’ve called the Browns the worst team in football for weeks now, but the overreaction in the market from last week to this week is too significant to ignore. Not only that, but the Brownies arguably take a step down in competition this week while also taking back severely inflated points. Recommendation: Cleveland +9½ -105

Indianapolis +2½ +103 Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. The Colts came up just short of a win over the Jaguars in Week 5, where they fell 37-34 on a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds to play. It was a bitter defeat, but not a bad one, as the Colts' offense was humming with veteran Joe Flacco in place of the injured Anthony Richardson. Flacco threw for 359 yards and three majors with no INTs, and the Colts racked up 99 yards on the ground with a running back by committee in place of the injured Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis is now 3-2 despite playing with a depleted lineup, and the status of Richardson and Taylor is once again the story for the Colts in advance of this game.

Market perception is that they are not going to play this week either. That perception has caused “injury chasers” in the market to overreact and bet on Tennessee, and we anticipate that when AR7 and Taylor are scratched for good, there will be even more of a push for the Titans, who are coming off a blowout win over the Dolphins in Week 4 before enjoying a bye in Week 5.

The memory of the market is a short one, so it makes sense that the last thing anyone saw the Titans do—whoop up on Miami on MNF—is having an impact here too. The Titans ran it up 31-12 in that game, but they also lost both star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and starting QB Will Levis. Both practiced this week and are expected to play, but is Levis really that much of an improvement over backup Mason Rudolph at this point?

They say winning cures all, but we say one win does not make a season, and the Titans are just 1-3. Nor does one win justify the market’s overreaction to the opening line of this game, in which the Colts were favored on the road. You can’t tell us the oddsmakers didn’t expect Joe Flacco could play that game and threw up a “bad number.” They know Richardson is hurt, and they didn’t care. If anything, they tipped their hand and let it be known they respect Indy this week even without Taylor and regardless of who is under center. That is a message we are not going to ignore. Recommendation: Indianapolis +2½ +103

Houston -7 +106 over New England

1:00 PM EST. The Patriots are going to pull the trigger on a quarterback change this week, as they’ll see what #3 overall pick Drake Maye has to offer after five weeks on the bench watching Jacoby Brissett get mauled, taking 17 sacks this season. It doesn’t matter if your name is Joe Montana—if you spend that much time on your back in the NFL, you are going to have limited success. Perhaps Maye will be the cure-all for a Patriots offense that scored just 10 points last week versus the Dolphins, 13 in Week 4 against the 49ers, and three against the Jets in Week 3. The most points the Pats put up in a game this season was 20 versus Seattle in Week 2, which followed the 16 New England posted in its shocking upset of the Bengals in Week 1.

Head coach Jerod Mayo said of Maye, "I think now Drake gives us the best chance to win now and in the future. He's been getting better every single week, as I said before. At the end of training camp, he actually was trending at a very high rate, and that has continued through the early part of the season." Maybe Maye does give the Pats the best chance to win, but we aren’t even six weeks removed from Mayo saying that Brissett “gave them the best chance to win.” Further potentially working against the Patriots is their pending trip to London next week, where they will battle the Jaguars. We can’t say for sure, but we know that if we were on a 1-4 team expected to be the worst team in the league, a trip across the pond might be something to look forward to with not much else positive going on.

If the Texans were healthy, they would be double-digit chalk in this spot, but they are not, with notable injuries to star WR Nico Collins and runner Joe Mixon, who were two of nine Texans to miss at least some practice time this week. Collins will definitely not play after he was placed on injured reserve, which means he must sit out at least four games. Other notable Texans who missed time include tackle Laremy Tunsil, safety Jimmie Ward, and defensive end Derek Barnett.

Houston had high expectations going into the season, and while they are 4-1 in the standings, they are just 1-3-1 Against the Spread (ATS), which is not becoming of a squad that is being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road. That is significant because the market is hip to the fact that pooches of +5½ or more have been barking up a storm to the tune of a 19-4-1 record, with 13 of those teams winning outright. There is no guarantee that trend is going to take a hit here, but there are signs that point to the Patriots potentially being in for a long afternoon at the office. Recommendation: Houston -7 +106

Denver +2½ +107 over L.A. Chargers

4:05 PM EST. Regardless of the regime, the Chargers always seem to be stuck in neutral. This time it’s with Jim Harbaugh, “super genius,” who led the Michigan Wolverines to the National Championship last season amid one of the worst recruiting scandals of all time. Rather than face his punishment, Harbaugh bolted Ann Arbor for the sunny skies of Los Angeles. Under Harbaugh, the Bolts are 2-2, both straight up and Against the Spread (ATS), with their wins coming over Las Vegas and Carolina and their losses coming to the Steelers and Chiefs. Last week, the Chargers were on a bye.

The Broncos are 3-2, but they are not well-regarded in the media or the market as we head into Week 6. Denver is coming off a home win over the hated Raiders on Sunday, 34-18, which the talking heads have discounted because Las Vegas was short-handed in light of star WR Davante Adams asking for a trade and not making the trip to the Mile High City. That win comes on the heels of an ugly 10-9 victory over the Jets, which, considering the state of New York, is not going to carry much weight either. However, at some point, there is going to have to be some respect paid to the Broncos. They have won three straight games, including two outright wins on the road as a significant underdog, and yet they are once again a pooch at home in the Mile High City to the Chargers. How can that be? A breakdown of X’s and O’s is not needed here—plain and simple, wrong side favored. Recommendation: Denver +2½ +107

Las Vegas +3 -103 over Pittsburgh

4:05 PM EST. 4:05 PM EST. Raiders head coach Antonio Pearce is finding out the hard way that it’s much harder to be “the man” than it is to fill in for the man on an interim basis, as his team is 2-3 after getting waffled in Denver in Week 5, 34-18. In light of that result, Pearce is making a change at quarterback, moving on from Gardner Minshew to Aidan O’Connell. Not only are the Raiders struggling on the field, but off it, star WR Davante Adams has requested a trade, and the team said they will facilitate that request, but thus far, they have not found an appropriate suitor. Adams is nursing a hamstring injury, so even if he were not leaving Las Vegas, he wouldn’t have been available.

On the other side of the field, the Steelers may have a QB controversy of their own, as Russell Wilson returned to practice this week after missing the first five games of the season with a significant calf injury. The Steelers are off to a 3-2 record, but they have lost two straight, and Justin Fields did not have a good showing last week versus the Cowboys, throwing for 131 yards in defeat. The other game the Steelers lost was as road chalk versus in Colts where they lost outright as a -2½-point favorite.

Head coach Mike Tomlin did his best “coach speak” when discussing his QB room, saying, “Until Russell gets to a point where we're comfortable with what we're looking at, we're going to continue to push forward with Justin until those things are legitimate, and then we'll make those decisions.” We don’t know what the hell that means, but we do know that Wilson is supposed to suit up as the backup this week, which means the pressure is on Fields to not get the hook because if he struggles, the leash will be short. Maybe Fields thrives with Wilson breathing down his neck or maybe he crumbles into dust. Regardless of who is going to line up under center for the Steelers, in their current form, they are not worthy of being favored in this range on the road in Sin City. Recommendation: Las Vegas +3 -103

Carolina +6 -110 over Atlanta

4:25 PM EST. The Falcons are 3-2, but a closer look at their resume shows they are living on the edge after playing four straight games that were decided by a touchdown or less, including a 36-30 overtime decision over the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football to get the party started in Week 5.

That TNF contest was a wild one, but it was also one the Dirty Birds were fortunate to win. The same could be said for their 26-24 Week 4 win over the Saints, as well as their improbable Week 2 win over the Eagles, in which they marched down the field in the final minute to score the game-winning touchdown—only possible because of a few lucky breaks along the way. The point is the Falcons are a few bounces away from being 2-3, 1-4, or even 0-5.

There is no sugarcoating the spot in which Carolina finds itself again this season, as they are in the basement of the league standings through five weeks. The Panthers are 1-4 after another double-digit loss, this time to the Bears in Chicago, 36-10. In their four losses, Carolina has lost by margins of 37, 10, and 26, yet the oddsmakers made them a “dog-friendly” +6-point pooch in this spot. Why?

With a number like this, not only are the books exposed on the point spread, but they have also made this game an easy target for money line parlays and teasers. On the surface, this looks like a beatable number, and perhaps the Falcons will win and cover with ease, but when the oddsmakers tell us something, we listen. Recommendation: Carolina +6 -110

Dallas +3 +100 over Detroit

4:25 PM EST. The last time the Lions took the field, they won a high-profile Monday Night Football game, 42-29, over the Seahawks. That win and cover moved Detroit to 3-1 both Straight Up and Against the Spread (ATS), with them enjoying a bye in Week 5. The Lions have become a popular team in the market under head coach Dan Campbell, as they’ve been an ATS monster.

Since the 2021 season, Detroit is 38-17 against the number, which is the best winning percentage ATS by a current head coach. While the Lions were enjoying their time off, the Cowboys were once again looking very average in a nationally televised prime-time game. This time it was in a 20-17 win over the Steelers, in a game that was about as entertaining as watching paint dry or grass grow. That unspirited effort comes on the heels of the Cowboys' Week 4 Thursday Night Football win over the Giants, 20-15.

Through five weeks, there might not be another contender with less market and media appeal than Dallas. We know this because the Cowboys are spotting a field goal at home for the first time this season. Dallas has played two games at home this year, with the first coming in Week 2, where they were a -6-point favorite but lost outright, 44-19, and in Week 3, where they were a +1-point underdog to the Ravens in a game they also lost, 28-25. Now, after two ugly wins on the road, the Cowboys are back at Jerry’s World, and they are taking back inflated points to a Detroit team that has yet to play a real contender, as the Lions have played a weak schedule that ranks just 25th league-wide. Just two weeks ago, the Lions were -3-point chalk at Arizona, and now they are a similar price in Dallas. That can't be. Recommendation: Dallas +3 +100

Cincinnati -3½ -115 over N.Y. Giants

8:20 PM EST. The Bengals have been one of the biggest disappointments in the early going, as they were expected to contend in the AFC, but instead, they are just 1-4 after another tough loss, this time at home to Baltimore in overtime, 41-38. That final score does not do the Bengals justice, as they had so many chances to win that game, but the cookie did not crumble their way. Cincinnati’s lone win came over the Panthers, which is not going to earn them any points, while their losses have come to New England, Kansas City, Washington, and the Ravens.

The Giants are 2-3 after an upset win over Seattle, and that win proves just how quickly market perception can change, especially when the other side appears as inept as the Bengals. Underdogs have hit at a high clip this season, and the Giants are part of that, but one win does not make a season. Just because the G-Men upset the Seahawks last week does not mean they’ll do the same to the Bengals here.

The fact that the Bengals are spotting less than a touchdown to the Giants in this spot shows just how low their stock has fallen. This is a classic "buy low, sell high" situation, with the most recent results for both sides looming large. Swallowing the deflated points with the Bengals is the only option here. Recommendation: Cincinnati -3½ -115

 



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Early leans & analysis (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)