Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle -5 -108 ET365 -5 -110 Sportsinteraction -5 -110 888Sport -5-110
Posted at 3:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.
Kansas City 5½ over New Orleans
8:20 PM EST. The Chiefs are easy to hate for several reasons, which are not limited to their consistent success on the field. However, that success has not come without criticism, especially this season, as Kansas City has been on the right side of some sticky situations that have allowed them to start the season 4-0. In Week 1 versus Baltimore, the Chiefs benefited from an overturned touchdown at the end of the game that would have put the Ravens in a position to tie the game with an extra point.
In Week 2, the Chiefs weaseled their way out of a sure loss to the Bengals by kicking a 51-yard field goal with 0:00 on the clock in a 26-25 final as a -6½-point favorite. Week 3 saw K.C. face the Falcons on Sunday Night Football, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for just 217 yards with two TDs and an INT. That was not a pretty game, nor was the Chiefs' 17-10 road win over the Chargers in Week 4, as they were down 10-0 in that game before shutting out the Chargers the rest of the way. All that to say, the Chiefs have not been running on all cylinders, and the propensity to win one-score games has been targeted by the media and the market.
Before we get to the Saints, we must take a moment to talk about the ridiculous clip at which underdogs of +5½ (which is where this line opened) or more are hitting this season. Coming into Week 5, underdogs of at least +5½ are 17-4-1 Against the Spread (ATS), winning 11 of those games outright. That record is now 19-4-1 with both the Giants and Cardinals making it lucky 13 with their outright wins.
As for the Saints, they have lit up the scoreboard for the most part, racking up 47 points in a win over the Panthers in Week 1 and 44 points in a Week 2 win over Dallas before taking a step back versus the Eagles (15-12 loss). In Week 4, they went toe-to-toe with the Falcons in a 26-24 loss that came down to the final play of the game, which ended on a 58-yard field goal. The Saints are 2-2, but they are 3-1 Against the Spread (ATS), which only lends credibility to them as a live dog to an unsuspecting market. However, in a week where there were so many short lines, why did the oddsmakers hang a significant number on this stand-alone prime-time game?
Typically, we do not lay this kind of lumber in a game like this, but there are exceptions to every rule. Considering current trends and market forces, it would have been easy to back the Saints, taking back what looks like a nice pile of points. However, we are in the business of fading public perception and overreactions, and there has certainly been an overreaction to the dogs barking week after week which is why this number is coming down, as the market is hammering New Orleans. If the Saints keep this one close, so be it, but the Chiefs have yet to have one of their “signature” wins this season, and this one lines up nicely for them to do just that. Swallow the points.
Sherwood
Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.
For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins
Arizona -150
Detroit +125
That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)
Arizona -145
Detroit +134
If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.
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Our Pick
Kansas City -5 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)