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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Tampa Bay over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. Losing is never good, but losing to a previously winless team that has little to no market appeal is even worse. That’s where we find Tampa Bay after Week 3, where they lost to Denver at The Pirate Ship, 26-7. That final score was a stunner, as the Bucs were one of the trendier picks in the market after a 2-0 start. When a team loses like that, there is a tendency in the market to switch sides and fade that team the next time out. Similarly, when a team like Philly is heavily faded and still wins, it’s tempting to want to back them in the following week.

We call that “zig-zagging,” and this game has it working on two fronts. The market eagerly faded the Eagles after their Monday Night Football collapse at home to the Falcons in Week 2. Philadelphia played the high-scoring Saints in New Orleans last Sunday, but there were no fireworks. Instead, the Iggles grinded out a last-minute 15-12 win, limiting the Saints' Derek Carr to just 142 yards with one TD and an INT after he lit it up in the first two weeks of the season. While the Eagles needed a major with 1:01 remaining to go ahead for good, Jalen Hurts passed for over 300 yards, and Saquon Barkley added another 147 on the ground with two TDs.

Those numbers are impressive, and the win was nice, but it’s important not to overreact to the week-to-week happenings of the Eagles. It might be tempting to back Philly here after a “statement” win, especially considering what happened to the Bucs in Week 3, but that would be the wrong move. Instead, the prudent play is to fade the Eagles after their win and back the Bucs after their loss.

Sherwood

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