Posted Friday at 2:00 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 4

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 29

Cincinnati -4½ -110 over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. If this were a movie script, it might be too far-fetched, but in the NFL, anything is possible. Here in Week 4, we have Andy Dalton, fresh off the bench and into the starter’s blocks, where he posted the Panthers’ first win, 36-22, on the road in Las Vegas. He now faces his former team, the Bengals, who cut him loose after nine seasons at the end of 2019 in favor of #1 overall pick Joe Burrow. Since being cast aside like garbage, Dalton has spent time backing up Dak Prescott in Dallas, Justin Fields in Chicago, Derek Carr in New Orleans, and then Bryce Young in Carolina, waiting for another chance to be “the man.” Injuries along the way allowed Dalton to start several games with varying degrees of success, but nothing was good enough to land him a full-time job as the top passer under center for an NFL team.

As good as the story is, this is where the fairy tale ends and reality sets in. Dalton coming off the bench and playing so well for a 0-2 team that the market had left for dead was one of the big surprises of Week 3, but that element of surprise is no longer there. If Dalton was being taken lightly or treated as a joke before, he most definitely is not now. Not only that, but the Bengals know everything about him, even if it’s been a few years since he suited up for them. Perhaps Bryce Young was 100% the problem with the Panthers, but there is a very good chance they are just a dumpster fire of an organization from the top down. Let’s not forget that the Panthers were blown out in Week 1 by the Saints (47-10) and in Week 2 by the Chargers (26-3).

Speaking of dumpster fires, enter the Bengals, who were beaten at home on Monday Night Football as the biggest favorite of the week (-7½) by the Commanders, 38-33. There is no sugarcoating that defeat or the Bengals' brutal 0-3 start (1-2-ATS). However, we’ll note Cincy should have beat the Chiefs in K.C. in Week 3. Furthermore, the Bengals have been here before. Recently. Remember last season when the Bengals started 1-3 before making a playoff push that came up just short, even after Joe Burrow landed on the IR in late November with a season-ending injury? Past results are not indicative of future returns, and perhaps the Bengals are as bad as their goose egg would suggest, but we’re not ready to write them off just yet. If there was a game to get right in, this is it. If Dalton gets to play Cinderella for one more week, so be it, but at the end of the day, the Bengals are the value play, spotting deflated road points. Recommendation: Cincinnati -4½ -110

Jacksonville +6 -115 over Houston

1:00 PM EST. The Texans were a team that had some preseason hype, and if they were playing just about anyone other than Jacksonville, Houston might be targeted as an undervalued team here after losing a 34-7 stinker in Minnesota. However, the Vikings are 3-0, so that loss is not considered a “bad” one despite the blowout, and the Texans are still 2-1, so their stock is not down all that much, if at all.

The Jaguars are 0-3 and look like a total dumpster fire after a most embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football, where they were waffled 47-10 by the Bills. Of course, the disarray the Jags are apparently in was not a hot topic before they lost by six TDs, as they were being touted by pundits and pick-sellers alike, with them closing as just a +4-point pooch after getting pounded by the market prior to kickoff.

Stand-alone prime-time games have a great influence on the market because they are highly viewed and highly wagered on. When a team like the Jaguars, whose reputation in the market is unstable at best, goes out and no-shows, it’s going to leave a bad taste in the mouth of anyone that held a Jags ticket on “MNF.” Furthermore, the Jags have now lost eight of their last nine games, going back to their collapse last season. If there is a team with less market appeal based on last week's results than the Jaguars, we don’t know who it is, but that puts us in a position to profit because the Jags are taking back inflated points here in this spot, and in a division game, those inflated points can be very valuable. Of course, the Jaguars can lose this game, and they may not cover, but it’s Jacksonville or nothing here. Recommendation: Jacksonville +6 -115

Arizona -3½ -110 over Washington

4:05 PM EST. The Cardinals were one of the flavors of the week heading into Week 3 after destroying the Rams at home in the desert. However, they let down their newfound backers with a lifeless 20-13 loss, also at home, to the Lions. Those pumping the Cards last week are nowhere to be found this week, as that bandwagon emptied faster than a greased pig, but this gives us a chance to potentially “buy low” on the Red Birds here in Week 4, as they are spotting deflated points to this latest “flavor of the week.” Ironic, don’t you think?

There might not be a team or player whose stock shot higher after one week than Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. The former Football Team put on a showcase on Monday Night Football (MNF) in front of the football world, winning outright 38-33 against the Bengals in Cincinnati as a +7½-point underdog. As for Daniels, he is now the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +160, while preseason favorite Caleb Williams has dropped to +650. The Commanders are now 2-1 both Straight Up (SU) and Against the Spread (ATS), but that prime-time victory on Monday night carries the most weight, as it was the most recent and most-watched result. The Commanders also knocked out a few survivor pool contestants after defeating the biggest favorite of the week.

With their newfound market presence, the Commanders are worth dissecting, and under the hood, there are some red flags. While the sample size is small, Washington is ranked 27th despite their positive start, with wins over the Giants (30th) and the Bengals (14th). That win over the Bengals is being credited as one of quality, but Cincy is now 0-3, and maybe the Bengals will be more Bungles in 2024 than the pundits first thought. Regardless, that win on MNF made a statement in the market, and we hope to take advantage of a sure market overreaction. Recommendation: Arizona -3½ +100

San Francisco -10½ -110 over New England

4:05 PM EST. This is the first double-digit spread of the season, which says a lot about not only the parity in the NFL. It also stands out more than usual because the underdogs have been barking loudly, something the 49ers have been victims of, and the Patriots have been participants in.

We’ll start with New England, who made its mark in Week 1 as a +9½-point pooch in Cincinnati, winning outright over the Bengals, 16-10. In Week 2, the Patriots hung tough with the now 3-0 Seahawks, losing a squeaker in overtime, 23-20, as a +3-point underdog. In Week 3, the Patriots went to New York to battle the Jets on Thursday Night Football, which was a game they were expected to lose, and they did, 24-3. The Pats have been given a pass by the pundits in that TNF contest because it came on a short week, and the Jets are still highly regarded, but we’re not quite as forgiving, at least here in Week 4, where the Pats look to be in a tough spot.

The Patriots also may be feeling the pressure to make a switch at QB, with veteran Jacoby Brissett currently ahead of #3 overall pick Drake Maye sitting in the wings. Maye mopped up on TNF, but that may not be the last time we see him in the near future, as the pressure to win, even when you are expected to be the worst team in football, is high. Moreover, the Patriots likely want to see what they have in Maye before they likely pick in the top 3 again, and the only way to do that is to throw him to the wolves.

By steep contrast, the 49ers are Super Bowl contenders, but they are not playing like it, and much of that has to do with the laundry list of injuries they are carrying in the first month of the season. Star runner Christian McCaffrey has missed the first three games and was in Germany undergoing some special treatment, while George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are also injured and missed Sunday’s 27-24 loss to the Rams in which the 49ers blew a 14-point lead. This week, the IR is loaded again with star left tackle Trent Williams joining the infirmary after missing practice with an undisclosed illness.

While those injuries are notable, they are not privileged information, and the oddsmakers are aware of them; yet they still made San Fran a huge favorite. Why? Well, despite the injuries, the 49ers post a top-10 scoring offense, rank third in yards per game, and rank second in passing yards per game. This is the ultimate “get right” spot for the 49ers; the oddsmakers are screaming that from the hilltops. We’re not going to ignore what they are telling us. Swallow the points. Recommendation: San Francisco -10½ -110

Kansas City -7 -115 over L.A. Chargers

4:25 PM EST. The Chargers are going to be without starter Justin Herbert, but the narrative now is that he was hurt all along, and they might just be better off with a healthy Taylor Heinicke, who is a “Jim Harbaugh guy,” making him the second most nauseating “Taylor” on the planet at the moment. From a market perception perspective, the Chargers are getting respect for a top-10 defense that has allowed 11 points per game, but to be fair, they have faced three mediocre QBs in Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, and Justin Fields.

The Chiefs are no longer a football team; they are a mere vessel for whatever Travis Kelce and his main squeeze, Taylor Swift, are up to. That is obviously obnoxious, but guess what? It matters because we get stories like the ones dominating the headlines this week that Kelce is out of shape and not focused because he spent his offseason partying and traveling the world with Swift. We can’t confirm or deny these reports, but we do know that that easy-to-hate coupling, combined with the Chiefs not looking that great through three games, just might have Kansas City undervalued in Week 4.

The Chiefs have yet to blow anybody out, winning one-score games over the Ravens, Bengals, and Falcons over the first three weeks of the season, but this game has the opportunity to get ugly. The Chargers are in a tough spot here after suffering through with a banged-up Herbert, but a healthy Heinicke is barely an upgrade, if at all. Furthermore, from a scheduling perspective, the Chargers spent the last two weeks out East and did not return to L.A. after beating the Panthers in Week 2, instead moving on to Pittsburgh to get ready for the Steelers, which is a game they lost 20-10. Now they are home after an extended trip, licking their wounds. If Heinicke and company can keep this game close, so be it, but you won’t find us making that wager. Recommendation: Kansas City -7 -115

Baltimore -2½ -110 over Buffalo

8:20 PM EST. The Bills were a team that the media and market were down on before the season, but after a 3-0 start, including back-to-back prime-time blowouts over the Jaguars and Dolphins, Buffalo is back in the discussion as a Super Bowl favorite. We’ve seen more than one poll this week that lists the Bills as the “best” team in the NFL, and that is a hard point to argue against considering their torrid start. However, we are not in the business of predicting who is the “best”; we are proprietors of value, and it’s nearly impossible not to notice the Bills’ stock is skyrocketing.

Take nothing away from the Bills; they are a great team, but that comes at a price when it comes to backing them here in Week 4. On the surface, it might look appealing that the Bills are an underdog here in Baltimore, but the Ravens are just 1-2 both Straight Up and Against the Spread (ATS), with their lone win coming in Dallas in Week 3, 28-25. However, that final score does not do the Ravens justice, as they were up big in that game before taking their foot off the gas and allowing 19 unanswered points in the 4th quarter. Almost blowing a 28-6 lead in the final frame is not a good look, especially on the heels of blowing a home game to the Raiders in Week 2. Still, the Ravens did enough to hold the ‘Boys at bay and finish the job.

We don’t love the Ravens, and we really don’t like Lamar Jackson, but it does not matter what we like. If we didn’t know better, we’d unload on the Bills in this game because they look so much better than Baltimore that it’s not even funny. With our lives on the line, we’d take Josh Allen 100 times out of 100 over Jackson, but that’s the point. The Bills are the much easier team to trust at the moment, and because of that, they are getting way too much respect here on a short week. Like it or not, the Ravens are spotting defeated points here, which is all that matters. Recommendation: Baltimore -2½ -110