Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle -3 +100 BET365 - 3 -105 Sportsinteraction -3 -105 888Sport -3 -105
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Tennessee -3 over Green Bay
1:00 PM EST. Apparently, we’re going to do the “will he, won’t he” dance with Jordan Love this week, as the injured Packers starter was a “limited” participant in practice despite suffering an MCL sprain that typically takes about a month to recover from. For the record, it’s been two weeks this Friday since Love was hurt in Brazil, and much like last week, his flirtation with playing appears to be gamesmanship on the part of the Packers.
How do we know this? Last week, oddsmakers made the Packers a +3-point underdog, strongly suggesting that Love was not going to play, and even if he did, he wouldn’t be at 100%. By the end of the week, there was little doubt that Malik Willis would start and Love would rest. Here in Week 2, it’s much of the same. If the oddsmakers truly thought Love was going to start, the Packers wouldn’t be underdogs at 0-2 Tennessee, especially not after beating the Colts outright as a dog at Lambeau. In Week 2, the Packers opened as +2½-point underdogs, and that number has already started to come down with the possibility of Love playing. However, even if he doesn’t, there could be a tendency in the market to “zig-zag” to the Willis-led Packers after they were a big market fade last Sunday.
Love’s injury aside, the Packers play their hated rivals, the Vikings, next week, which may be the more realistic target for his return. While Green Bay was able to dispose of the Colts, they were aided by three interceptions, a stat that cannot be relied upon from week to week, as turnovers are largely based on luck. Furthermore, the Packers were very one-dimensional against Indy, running Josh Jacobs into the ground and limiting Willis to just 14 pass attempts. Credit to Willis for sticking to the game plan and not making mistakes, but now he’ll be starting on the road against a team that knows him inside and out.
The Titans are 0-2 and have looked rotten. If you were writing a script, it would be tempting to have Tennessee’s former third-round pick and potential QB of the future (Willis), who was cast aside for a shiny second-round pick (Will Levis) and then traded to the Pack for a seventh-rounder, return in Week 3 as the starter for Green Bay but that plot would be a bit far-fetched. As usual, reality is stranger than fiction, and Willis will do just that. However, this is a tough spot for him and the Packers, all things considered. The Titans were made the chalk here for a reason, despite their poor start, and that’s something we’re not going to ignore.
Sherwood
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Our Pick
Tennessee -3 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)