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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Dallas +100 over Baltimore

4:25 PM EST. There are few teams that are as polarizing as “America’s Team,” the Dallas Cowboys, but their popularity causes tidal waves of over- and under-reactions week to week because they are either loved, hated, or loathed by just about everyone in the market. After the Cowboys went on the road in Week 1 and handed the Browns a lopsided 33-17 loss in a game where Dallas was a +2½-point underdog, the ‘Boys were a -6-point favorite at home against the Saints in Week 2. That role did not serve the Cowboys well, as they were served a huge can of whoop ass with the Saints marching to a 44-19 win in “Big D.” Giving up 44 points at home to anyone is a bad look, and the Cowboys have been the target of ridicule from the talking heads all week. Those talking heads have an influence on the market, and that matters because market perception is everything.

For the second week in a row, the biggest favorite on the board lost outright, but for whatever reason, the Ravens aren’t taking the same level of criticism as the Cowboys for their loss. Margin of defeat could be the difference, as the Ravens lost by three points and not three touchdowns. Also a part of the Ravens' narrative is that they are “too good” to go 0-3, which they have not done in almost a decade (2015). Being the best “0-2” team in the NFL might sound like a badge of honor, but the reality is the Ravens are the best of a bad lot.

The Ravens are being given too much credit here while the Cowboys are under too much heavy fire, which has created a situation where Baltimore is favored in Dallas, and that cannot be. There is an expectation in the market that the Ravens are going to “bounce back” here, but the Cowboys are coming into this game with a nasty taste in their mouths, especially a proud and talented defense that was made to look foolish and hasn’t heard the end of it. That defense has to be licking its chops, too, as Baltimore brings three new starters on the O-line and a banged-up Ronnie Stanley for them to feast on. If Lamar Jackson is able to stay upright and pick apart the Cowboys, fine, but that is not his game. The Cowboys just might be the best value play on the board this week. Wrong side favored.

Sherwood

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