Pinnacle +100   BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105  888Sport -105

Posted Friday at 2:00 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 3

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 22

Indianapolis -2 -106 over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. The Colts were a -2½-point favorite in Green Bay last week, and they were a consensus pick among pundits and pick sellers alike after it was officially announced that Malik Willis would start in place of the injured Jordan Love for the Packers. We often discuss the overreaction to injuries, and that game last week was a prime example of that. The market could not fathom that Willis could tie his own shoes, let alone compete at the highest level of professional football.

That game versus the Packers was supposed to be an easy win for the Colts, but it was not, as Anthony Richardson threw three interceptions. The Colts trailed from start to finish in that game and never had a chance to cover the number, as they scored their only touchdown with 1:47 to go, which just padded the final score to look closer than it really was. Anyone who bet on Indy last week had to be disgusted with that ticket, and now the zig-zag angle is in play. Those that bet Indy last week can’t wait to fade ‘em this week.

The Bears are 1-1 after hanging around with the Texans in a 19-13 loss on Sunday Night Football, which was good for a push or a cover, depending on what number it was played at. Caleb Williams was not sharp again on SNF, as he went 23-for-37 for 174 yards and two interceptions. Through two pro starts, Williams has a QB rating of 56.1%, which has him in the company of fellow rookie Bo Nix of Denver and last year’s #1 overall pick, Bryce Young, who got benched this week after the Panthers' 0-2 start. Furthermore, in the game the Bears did win in Week 1, they had no business doing so, as if not for a game-winning pick-six by the Chicago defense, they would be 0-2 as well.

Now, we’re not going to suggest that was some stellar showing and therefore there will be a big appetite for the Bears this week, but we will point out that when comparing Week 2 results, the Colts' defeat in Green Bay had a bigger negative impact on the majority of the market because the action on that game was so one-sided. At the end of the day, the Colts cannot be spotting fewer points at home this week versus the Bears than they were in Green Bay in Week 2, regardless of the Packers' QB situation. Are Williams and the Bears, in their current form, that much better than Willis and the Packers? The Colts are underpriced here in a big way. Recommendation: Indianapolis -2

Denver +6½ -106 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. The Broncos are sitting at 0-2 after a tough start to the season, losing to Seattle in Week 1 and falling to the Steelers last Sunday at home, 13-6, as a +2½-point underdog. Although Denver managed to push in Week 1 in Seattle, it did little to bolster their standing in the market. We’re not going to spend a bunch of time on the Broncs because they truly are not the story here, as it is the Buccaneers who are the target after a hot start out of the gate.

On the other side, Tampa Bay is one of the early surprises of the season at 2-0. The Buccaneers defeated Washington in Week 1 and followed it up with an impressive road win against Detroit as a +7½-point underdog. Baker Mayfield has been performing exceptionally well, with a QB rating second only to Derek Carr through two weeks. Mayfield’s stat line includes five touchdowns and just one interception. Only Carr, Mayfield, and Kyler Murray have a +4 TD-to-INT ratio so far this season, which is why Tampa Bay is gaining traction among pundits and analysts who are hyping the Bucs in Week 3.

But here’s the “yeah, but”... Despite Mayfield’s strong numbers, he's taken six sacks (tied for 10th in the league), and while the Buccaneers are 2-0, their wins need more context. The victory in Week 1 came at home against a rookie QB making his first road start. The road win against Detroit looks strong on paper, but the Lions’ actual quality might still be up in the air. Market perception of Tampa Bay, and the NFC South in general, wasn’t great in the preseason, but that perception has drastically shifted after two weeks. With the Bucs and Saints now a combined 4-0, Tampa is suddenly being viewed as a legit team.

However, that swift change in perception has resulted in the Bucs spotting inflated road points this week. There has been a significant swing from Week 2 to Week 3, with Tampa Bay going from being a +7½ underdog to now spotting more than two touchdowns worth of adjustment. Additionally, the Buccaneers have an NFC "measuring stick" game next week against the Eagles, which sets up a potential lookahead spot. Take the points. Recommendation: Denver +6½

Pittsburgh -1½ +102 over L.A. Chargers

1:00 PM EST. The Steelers are 2-0, but they are not getting much love this week. In fact, QB Justin Fields is taking heat for being perceived as the weak link thus far, with Pittsburgh having to rely on its defense to win the day. We aren’t going to try to sell you on Fields as a world-beater, but we’ll note that the Steelers are winning games without him playing particularly well. Market perception is that it is going to catch up with the Steelers this week, but we see it the other way. If Pittsburgh can win games in spite of their quarterback's play, how much damage can they do if Fields plays even a competent contest?

If you hear anyone discussing the Chargers' struggles having to travel from the West Coast to the East, pay no attention, as Los Angeles did not head home after stomping a mud hole in the Panthers and walking it dry last Sunday in a 26-3 win. The Chargers did not leave that blowout win unscathed, as QB Justin Herbert aggravated an ankle injury that caused him to miss practice this week, putting his status in doubt for Week 3. Reports suggest that Herbert is going to play despite not being able to take any reps, and we’ve seen the market react to that news by betting the Chargers down from the +2½ they were taking back at open. Of course, if Herbert does not play, there will be an overreaction to that news, but that is not the case at the moment.

If Herbert plays as expected, he is obviously not 100%, nor was he last week in Carolina. Against the Panthers, Herbert was just 14-of-20 passing for 130 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. In Week 1, at home versus the Raiders, Herbert was limited to just 144 yards passing and one major. Regardless of his status, Herbert is not right, and he’s not playing at a high level. Those numbers aren’t that much better than Fields', but it’s the Steelers' QB who is taking s**t. For our purposes, we hope Herbert plays and that the market overreacts to that news, which will allow us to get an even better number on the Steelers. Recommendation: Pittsburgh -1½

Carolina +5 -106 over Las Vegas

4:05 PM EST. If you had Andrew Gregory Dalton starting by Week 3 for any reason other than an injury to Panthers starting QB Bryce Young on your 2024 NFL bingo card, congratulations, as the “Red Rifle” is locked and loaded to fire again from under center. It’s easy to joke about Dalton getting another crack at starting in the NFL, but there is a reason a guy like him has stuck around as long as he has—competent QB play is hard to find. Hell, look at what Joe Flacco was able to do for the Browns last year after getting up off his parents’ couch and taking Cleveland to the playoffs. Flacco hadn’t thrown a pass all season, yet he played better than a majority of the QBs in this league in the second half of the season.

It might not be fair to blame the plight of the Panthers solely on former #1 overall pick Bryce Young, but there is no denying he’s been horrible through two games. It certainly doesn’t help that he’s playing for a new head coach, Dave Canales, in a new offensive system with new players surrounding him. In the NFL, there’s little time for a young QB to develop, as they are instantly thrown into the deep end to sink or swim. That doesn’t mean there’s no hope for Young—he’ll get another chance—but the league is littered with discarded top picks now thriving in new environments, including Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay and Sam Darnold in Minnesota.

The change at quarterback has done little to alter the market perception of the Panthers, as they’ve moved from disappointment to laughing stock for having to make a move so early in the season. But in reality, the Panthers can only go up from here, right? It’s unlikely they’ll be worse with Dalton, and based on their poor start and the Raiders' big win on the road last week, the Panthers are most definitely taking back inflated points.

The Raiders were the biggest underdog on the board in Week 2 as an +8½-point pooch in Baltimore, but against the odds, they won that game outright, 26-23, after outscoring the Ravens 13-0 over the final 10 minutes, including Dan Carlson’s 38-yard field goal with 27 seconds left on the clock. That win decimated what was left of many survivor pools and has now caused the Raiders to go from significant underdog to significant favorite in just one week. Win, lose, or draw, that double-digit swing is too great and leaves the Raiders unplayable. In Week 3. Hold your nose, it’s the Panthers or nothing. Recommendation: Carolina +5

Seattle -4½ -101 over Miami

4:05 PM EST. With the underdogs dominating after two weeks, the market is gun-shy to spot points, and this game has been a popular target, as the Dolphins, despite losing their starting QB, have been bet down from a +6½ point pooch to the price you see now. It’s unknown just how long Tua Tagovailoa will be out after he suffered his third concussion in two seasons versus the Bills last Thursday, but until he returns, seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson will be under center. The Dolphins had high expectations this season after signing Tagovailoa to a big-money contract and with Thompson having started games for them in 2022, but we have to wonder just what the Dolphins' mindset will be after a rough start to the season, where they barely edged out Jacksonville at home in Week 1 before getting waxed by the Bills 31-10 on Thursday Night Football. Thompson was the third-string pivot for the Fish last season, but he did not see any game action. Incidentally, Miami had no business beating the Jags.

Seattle is 2-0, but its résumé is easily picked apart because they have played Denver and New England and failed to make a statement in either game, with both coming down to Seattle either pushing or not covering, depending on what numbers were grabbed by the market in its first two games. Modest results aside, there have been some positives for Seattle, including the play of Geno Smith, who threw for 327 yards and a touchdown on the road versus the Pats in Week 2. The Seahawks did not leave New England unscathed, as WR DK Metcalf was one of eight players who missed practice this week. Those injuries could also have an impact here, as the market fades Seattle in Week 3.

X’s and O’s aside, the Seahawks are a similar price this week at home over the Thompson-led Dolphins as they were in Foxboro, which presents an opportunity for them to be backed at a steep discount. There is just as much value in a short-priced favorite as there is in an underdog taking back inflated points, and that puts the Seahawks on the shortlist for a potential wager this week. Recommendation: Seattle -4½

Detroit -3 +106 over Arizona

4:25 PM EST. At 1-1, you can count the Cardinals among one of the early surprise teams, as they put up a “good” showing in a Week 1 loss in Buffalo before waffling the Rams at home in the desert in Week 2, 41-10, as a modest -1-point home favorite. We were watching that game on Sunday, and it was almost like a wave when the market perception changed on the Cardinals, as our timeline was flooded with hot takes like, “The Cards might be trouble, y’all,” and “Cardinals gonna be a problem.”

Whether or not the Cards are for real matters little, as what does matter is that their stock is way up from the start of the season. However, the sample size is small, and we’d be remiss if we didn’t go back to that Week 1 game in Buffalo, in which Arizona did play well for a half but was lifeless in the second half. They were lucky to cover the +6½-points they were taking back because the only touchdown they scored in the final 30 minutes was a 96-yard kickoff return with 8:31 to go. The reality of Week 1 is that the Cards built a 17-3 lead but then totally crumbled. Full credit to them for taking care of business at home in Week 2 and blitzing the Rams, but again, that lopsided result has the eyes of the market now looking at Arizona as an appealing home pooch in Week 3.

If we are analyzing overreactions week to week, the Lions are on the opposite side of the spectrum from the Cards, as they lost outright at home as a -7½-point favorite to the Buccaneers, which made them the second-largest favorite of the week behind Baltimore. The Lions did not look the part of a team that was capable of covering more than a touchdown, as they trailed for much of that low-scoring game, only briefly taking a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter before the Bucs took the lead right back less than three minutes later. That is now two weeks in which the Lions have not looked good, as they also needed a touchdown in overtime in Week 1 versus the Rams to win and cover that game. The early season results for both of these teams have shifted market perception, and that now has the Lions spotting deflated points on the road. Recommendation: Detroit -3

San Francisco -6½ -110 over L.A. Rams

4:25 PM EST. There are injuries, and then there are INJURIES, and for both the Rams and 49ers, they are in INJURY territory, as both clubs come into Week 3 with their IRs looking like The Walking Dead. We’ll start with the Rams, who are still licking their wounds after getting embarrassed 41-10 in Arizona behind a patchwork offensive line, as Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Steve Avila (knee), and Joe Noteboom (ankle) are all on injured reserve. QB Matthew Stafford was shaken and stirred on Sunday, with head coach Sean McVay taking the heat for not adequately protecting his quarterback: "The amount of moving parts that we've had offensive line-wise has been wild, and that's such an important spot to be able to get a rapport with the guy that you're playing next to. It starts with me, putting guys in better spots."

Not only are the Rams missing much of their OL, but star WR Puka Nacua is also out, and joining him is fellow WR Cooper Kupp. Not only are the injuries an issue, but so too has the retirement of Aaron Donald, which has left another huge hole on the Rams, as they are a league-worst in yards allowed per game at 426 per contest. When defending the run, the Rams are allowing 197 yards per game, which is third-worst in the NFL. For the record, starting safety John Johnson was also placed on IR.

Normally, all of those injuries to the Rams could potentially cause the market to overreact because of the value and star power, but this is the NFL, and so the 49ers said “hold my beer” before releasing their IR report. Out for San Francisco is star runner Christian McCaffrey, while the Niners' most explosive offensive player, Deebo Samuel, is not expected to play for at least a couple of weeks. Also up in the air is the status of pass-catching TE George Kittle and CB Charvarius Ward, who both missed practice on Thursday, which is not usually a good sign. If Kittle does not play, the 49ers will officially be down three All-Pros on offense. Next man up, as they say.

With both sides suffering from significant injuries to notable players, the market has been hesitant to spot points with the Niners, as they opened as -7½-point chalk, but that number has been bet down through the key number to the price you see now. When we saw that line open at -7½, especially when the dogs have been barking and the status of the 49ers stars in light of their 23-17 road loss in Minnesota, it stood out like a sore thumb. Those -7½s are what we call a favorite-friendly number because, more often than not, the oddsmakers are enticing the market to bet on the underdog by putting a “hook” on that key number. There is a propensity in the market to act like getting a “hook” on a 3, 7, 10, or 14 is getting an “edge,” but we cannot stress enough that this is not the case. If the books offer it to you, it’s probably not to your benefit. Hard as it might b e to spot a touchdown or more with the 49ers in their current form, they are still superior to the Rams and the glorified practice roster they are sending out this week. Swallow the points. Recommendation: San Francisco -6½

Kansas City -3 -110 over Atlanta

8:20 PM EST. The Chiefs have reached that rare territory in that they are mainstream. The Super Bowls have helped with that for sure, but it’s more than that. It doesn’t matter what channel you put on—news, sports, or entertainment—and you are probably going to see a white arrowhead with the signature “KC” in the center. It might be a story on the team, but there’s a good chance it’s not. What’s far more likely is that they are talking about either Brittany Mahomes, wife of Patrick, or her bestie, Miss Taylor Alison Swift. The coverage of Lady Mahomes and Miss Swift has been overdone to death, and we’re not going to get into the politics or the ins and outs of that relationship, but we are going to focus on just how insufferable and exhausting the Chiefs have become because of all the outside pomp and circumstance that surrounds their games these days. Unless you are a Chiefs fan, there’s a good chance you are sick of all of these motherf*****s. Between the media and the market, we’ve heard not one positive word about the Chiefs heading into Week 3. K.C. is 2-0, but they are only 2-0 by the slimmest of margins after needing an overturned touchdown to cover against the Ravens on opening night, and then squeaking by the Bengals, 26-25, at home last Sunday on the foot of Harrison Butker, who kicked a game-winning 51-yard field goal with 0:00 on the clock.

If we had a dollar for each time we’ve heard that the Falcons are going to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season this week, we’d have enough for a nice steak dinner because from pick seller to pundit, the Dirty Birds are getting all the love after their upset win on Monday Night Football versus the Eagles. It was a big rebound for the Falcons, who dropped their Week 1 home opener to the Steelers, where they closed as a -4-point favorite. However, it must be noted that the Falcons were dead late in that game, and if not for a drop on a gimme catch, they would have lost by double digits. The Falcons couldn’t move the ball five yards in the second half until the Eagles gave them life, but that is lost in the result of that game, as the market values wins over all else. When those wins come on a nationally televised, standalone prime-time game, they are valued even more and have an even greater impact on the market.

The underdogs are the story of the early season, and the Falcons are another pooch that is getting action in the market, but they are being given too much credit for stealing a win on MNF, while the Chiefs are taking too much crap for all the B.S. they’ve got going both on and off the field. The Falcons should be a bigger underdog in this spot, but they aren’t. The Dirty Birds are not ready for primetime, and the Chiefs are well equipped to expose them. Recommendation: Kansas City -3