Posted Friday at 12:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 2

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 15

N.Y. Jets -3½ -110 over Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. It’s only Week 1, and the Jets jokes are already all over late-night TV. Aaron Rodgers has been put on notice that his “relax” schtick might have worked in a podunk hick town like Green Bay, but not in New Yawk, where everything is bigga and betta. Rodgers and the Jets were toppled by the 49ers, 32-19, in front of a prime-time audience on Monday Night Football in a highly anticipated game after Rodgers injured himself on just the fourth snap of last season, his first with the Jets. While there is heat on Rodgers for a subpar passing night (13-of-21 for 167 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT), the Jets' defense is taking its lumps too, after giving up over 400 yards of offense, 24 first downs, and allowing the 49ers to control the ball for over 38 minutes of game action.

While the Jets' poor performance got a ton of press after that game, what matters most is that the market overreacted to the news that Christian McCaffrey was not going to play for the 49ers. When it was announced that “CMC” wasn’t going to suit up, the market pounded the Jets, and they never had a shot to cash that ticket. Anyone who jumped on that Jets train on Monday night is going to be hesitant to spot road points with that same Jets team on a short week. Instead, it’s going to be tempting to want to “zig-zag” and fade the Jets after they stumbled out of the gate so spectacularly.

In comparison, Tennessee looked pretty damn good until they gave away their Week 1 game to a Bears’ team that the Titans shut down on offense for the entire contest. We feel for anyone who was holding a Titans ticket because when you limit a team to 84 yards passing and 148 yards of total offense on the road, you are supposed to not only cover the +4 points, but you are supposed to win that game. However, the Titans’ QB, Will Levis, threw the game-losing pick-six with 7:35 to play. Perhaps Levis will bounce back this week after such a blunder, but the sting of that one might linger for a week or two. Even if Levis plays the game of his life, the Jets are spotting deflated points here on the road. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets -3½

Tampa Bay +7½ -110 over Detroit

1:00 PM EST. The Lions are market darlings, and they came through in a big way Sunday night when David Montgomery sent their backers to the pay window with a touchdown in overtime to defeat the Rams by six points. The Lions are notably now 39-24-1 Against the Spread (ATS) under head coach Dan Campbell, and the market loves a winner. That said, the Lions' stock is high, and there is now a premium to be paid to back them here in Week 2.

Wins are wins, but the Lions easily could have lost on SNF to the Rams, who had more yards, more first downs, won the time of possession, and had a 20-17 lead with 4:30 to play. The Lions needed a 32-yard field goal with 17 seconds to go, then to win the coin toss to get the ball, and finally to score a TD in OT to cover the -4½-point spread. A number of bounces could have gone the other way that would have seen them not cover the number.

The Buccaneers had a big Week 1, but they are not getting nearly the attention the Lions are after knocking off the Commanders, 37-20, at home in Tampa. That score actually flatters Washington, as they added a garbage-time touchdown with 1:12 to go after the Bucs had taken their foot off the gas with a 37-14 lead with 3:29 remaining. Baker Mayfield had one of his best games as a pro, throwing for 289 yards on 24-of-30 passing for four touchdowns. Perhaps most impressively, the Bucs were not aided by turnovers to post their 37 points, with Mayfield and company already looking in mid-season form, although we do acknowledge it was just one game and we always urge you to not overreact to one performance. Still, the Bucs are very much under the radar.

While both teams won and covered in Week 1, when considering the Lions' high-profile SNF result and their pedigree in the market, the Bucs are the B-side in this game. More often than not, that is the side we want to be on. The prudent play here is to take back the generous points the Bucs are getting in a game they can absolutely win outright. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +7½

Las Vegas +8½ -110 over Baltimore

1:00 PM EST. The Raiders had a poor Week 1 showing on the road in L.A., where they dropped a 22-10 decision, with their offense taking most of the heat for such a limp effort. Ironically, the Silver and Black were the first team to score a major in that game, with Alexander Mattison taking a Gardner Minshew pass 31 yards to the house. That was the only touchdown Las Vegas would score on the day, but some credit should be thrown the defense’s way, as they kept the Chargers out of the end zone for three quarters, and a late Charger TD with less than four minutes to go padded the 12-point loss. Don’t get us wrong, we’re not saying the Raiders put forth a great performance, but the Chargers didn’t either, and credit to the defense for keeping them in the game. Perhaps surprisingly, Las Vegas had more first downs, more yards of offense, and won the time of possession battle.

The Ravens found out the hard way that the line between winning and losing is as thin as they come on the NFL’s opening night in Kansas City, as they had their late-game touchdown taken away after review before the potential game-winning two-point conversion could be run by Baltimore. Every scoring play is reviewed, of course, but the play was close enough that those who backed the Ravens likely didn’t see enough for the call on the field—which was a touchdown—to be overturned. That call could have gone either way because, let’s not kid ourselves, we’ve all seen reviews that show one thing and then a doofus in a striped shirt tells us several minutes later that we didn’t see what they showed us on our HD screens a dozen times.

Besides the razor-thin defeat, there is no shame in a road loss in Kansas City, and so the Ravens are still among the top-tier teams in the market. There is a premium to back them this week, especially considering how things went for their opposition. Spotting inflated points is never in our wheelhouse, so the Raiders, hard as it might be, taking back those inflated points is the prudent play. It doesn’t hurt that Baltimore plays in Dallas next week too. Recommendation: Las Vegas +8½

N.Y. Giants +1½ -110 over Washington

The Giants were a home dog to Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, which was seen as somewhat disrespectful, but rather than rally around that fact and prove their naysayers wrong, the G-Men proceeded to lay an egg, losing that game in blowout fashion, 28-6. It’s worth noting that a late Minny TD padded the final, but regardless, after one week, the Giants are going to be a hard team to wager on in Week 2 because they looked so bad in Week 1. Hell, Daniel Jones and the G-Men were booed off the field at MetLife Stadium after throwing two interceptions, including a pick-six, taking five sacks, and posting a passer rating of 44.3, which was the second-worst mark among Week 1 starters.

By contrast, the Commanders lost in Tampa Bay, 37-20, but there is praise coming for their young quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who went 17-of-24 for 184 yards while adding a team-high 88 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they also are not great, and even if Daniels plays well, the Commanders’ porous defense is going to have a hard time keeping them in games. Last week, Washington gave up four majors to Baker Mayfield, who posted the best passer rating of the week at 146.4. Early reports on this game have the wagers very lopsided in favor of the Commanders, which means the market is all over them after seeing just how bad the Giants were to start the season. We are often looking to fade market perception, and that applies here. The biggest overreactions all season are usually in Week 2 and this is a prime example of that. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants +1½

Seattle -3½ -110 over New England

1:00 PM EST. We’re not in the habit of spotting road points. We’re especially not in the habit of spotting road points with weak favorites and we’re pretty damn sure that the Seahawks qualify, as they are a .500 football team on its best day. That said, it’s hard to overlook the market’s perception of New England after its puzzling win in Cincinnati. Jerod Mayo was the first Patriots head coach to win his debut since 1991, and for that, he should feel blessed because it is not often you will find NFL teams emerge victorious when none of their offensive plays went 20 yards, it had zero touchdown passes, and its offense tallied 120 total passing yards. New England is one of a handful of teams that won last week but looked putrid in doing so. For New England, this week it is time to pay the piper and the Seachickens are the beneficiaries.

Seattle was a 6-point home favorite last week against Denver and now they drop three points against a team with the lowest win projection in the NFL. The Seahawks faced a very weak Bronco team that started their rookie quarterback. There's not a lot to glean. Still, they held the Broncos backfield to just 20 carries for 64 yards and they are not taking a step up in class here. The Seahawks are going to have to play god awful to not cover this number and simply based on an overreaction to the Pats beating the Bengals, we must fade that misleading result. Recommendation: Seattle -3½

Minnesota +5 -110 over San Francisco

1:00 PM EST. The Vikings won their first game with Sam Darnold under center, but it came against a Giants team whose stock was already in the toilet, so that victory isn’t holding much weight here in Week 2. That is evident by this line, which is pretty disrespectful and should be hanging above every Vikings’ player locker. We’re not going to tell you the Vikes were world-beaters against the G-Men—they weren’t—but they did play a solid road game and took advantage of New York’s mistakes, and really, that’s all you can ask for in today’s NFL, where games are often decided by a few lucky plays.

By contrast, the 49ers won a high-profile game over the Jets on Monday Night Football (MNF) without star runner Christian McCaffrey, who they figure to have back in the lineup this week. That said, the ‘Niners also claimed they expected McCaffrey to play on MNF, but that was all smoke and mirrors. Backup running back Jordan Mason let it slip that he knew he was starting on Friday, but everyone kept their mouths shut until late Monday, which caused an overreaction in the market. The same could happen this week if “Caff” is ruled out, but at the moment, the 49ers are spotting inflated points on the road after a Monday Night Football win and cover. For some perspective, San Francisco closed as a -3½-point favorite at home against the Jets, and now they’re spotting the price you see posted on the road on a short week. This game checks many boxes. Recommendation: Minnesota +5