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Posted at 9:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pittsburgh +3 over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. The Steelers' stock might be at its lowest in the Mike Tomlin era, but we’re not sure why, as this was a team that won 10 games last season and made the playoffs with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. In the offseason, Pittsburgh parted ways with the hometown kid in Pickett and instead brought in veteran Russell Wilson after a disastrous run in Denver and another former hyped rookie, Justin Fields, from Chicago. While both should be considered an upgrade over last year's trio of pivots, neither looked good in the preseason, which has only strengthened the narrative that the Steelers are in line for regression and potentially a losing season. This would be a first for Tomlin in his 18 years in Steel Town.

While the offense may have some questions, the defense does not, as the Steelers featured a top-10 unit in 2023 that finished sixth in team DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) and seventh in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. Simply put, EPA describes how many points, on average, a team is expected to score on a possession given their particular field position. The Steelers' defense under Tomlin is famous for bringing the blitz, getting pressure on passers, and capitalizing on mistakes, allowing just under 20 points per game last season.

As far as expectations from the books, the Steelers are pegged to win just 8½ games in 2024, and they are favored in just six of their 18 games on the lookahead lines, while being posted at just a coin flip to finish dead last in the NFC North.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have some hype after backing up the Brinks truck for QB Kirk Cousins, who took his talents to Hotlanta after six years in frosty Minnesota. With the addition of Cousins, the Dirty Birds jumped ahead to become the favorites to win the NFC South (-130) and they are better than 2-1 (-210) to make the playoffs.

Y’all, this is a team that was 7-10 last season in a weak division, and all they really did was add an aged QB, who is coming off a serious injury. In case you forgot, Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8 versus the Packers. Now, he’s 36, and the Falcons think he’s the guy to lead them to the promised land? We’ll note that while the Falcons paid handsomely for Cousins (4-years, $180 million), they also went behind his back and drafted his potential replacement, Michael Penix Jr., with the #8 overall pick in last April’s draft. If Cousins thought the Falcons were going to get him some help with that high draft capital, he was dead wrong.

While Cousins has to adapt to a new team and a new environment while facing extremely high expectations (we’re talking Super Bowl or bust), he will have to deal with a brand new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson, who, at 37, is greener than goose shit. We're not saying that Atlanta won't justify all the hype but we're not close to being sold yet, either. What we do know is that this team has seen heavy media attention and also heavy betting action this week and coming into Week 1, the bandwagon is already full and all value is tapped. Even if you're buying that the Falcons are legit and you end up being right, the best edges will probably not be Week 1.

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

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