Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 1

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 8

Pittsburgh +3 over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. The Steelers' stock might be at its lowest in the Mike Tomlin era, but we’re not sure why, as this was a team that won 10 games last season and made the playoffs with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. In the offseason, Pittsburgh parted ways with the hometown kid in Pickett and instead brought in veteran Russell Wilson after a disastrous run in Denver and another former hyped rookie, Justin Fields, from Chicago. While both should be considered an upgrade over last year's trio of pivots, neither looked good in the preseason, which has only strengthened the narrative that the Steelers are in line for regression and potentially a losing season. This would be a first for Tomlin in his 18 years in Steel Town.

While the offense may have some questions, the defense does not, as the Steelers featured a top-10 unit in 2023 that finished sixth in team DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) and seventh in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. Simply put, EPA describes how many points, on average, a team is expected to score on a possession given their particular field position. The Steelers' defense under Tomlin is famous for bringing the blitz, getting pressure on passers, and capitalizing on mistakes, allowing just under 20 points per game last season.

As far as expectations from the books, the Steelers are pegged to win just 8½ games in 2024, and they are favored in just six of their 18 games on the lookahead lines, while being posted at just a coin flip to finish dead last in the NFC North.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have some hype after backing up the Brinks truck for QB Kirk Cousins, who took his talents to Hotlanta after six years in frosty Minnesota. With the addition of Cousins, the Dirty Birds jumped ahead to become the favorites to win the NFC South (-130) and they are better than 2-1 (-210) to make the playoffs.

Y’all, this is a team that was 7-10 last season in a weak division, and all they really did was add an aged QB, who is coming off a serious injury. In case you forgot, Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8 versus the Packers. Now, he’s 36, and the Falcons think he’s the guy to lead them to the promised land? We’ll note that while the Falcons paid handsomely for Cousins (4-years, $180 million), they also went behind his back and drafted his potential replacement, Michael Penix Jr., with the #8 overall pick in last April’s draft. If Cousins thought the Falcons were going to get him some help with that high draft capital, he was dead wrong.

While Cousins has to adapt to a new team and a new environment while facing extremely high expectations (we’re talking Super Bowl or bust), he will have to deal with a brand new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson, who, at 37, is greener than goose shit. We're not saying that Atlanta won't justify all the hype but we're not close to being sold yet, either. What we do know is that this team has seen heavy media attention and also heavy betting action this week and coming into Week 1, the bandwagon is already full and all value is tapped. Even if you're buying that the Falcons are legit and you end up being right, the best edges will probably not be Week 1 Recommendation: Pittsburgh +3

Carolina +4 over New Orleans

1:00 PM EST. The Panthers market perception is hot garbage after a season in which they went just 2-15 straight up and a bankroll-zapping 4-11-2 against the spread (ATS), both the worst marks in the league in 2023. Prospects for 2024 aren’t much better, as they are about +1100 to win the NFC South and around +550 to make the playoffs. That said, the Panthers are a team that is totally off the radar, as their future odds show they are underdogs in every game this season, creating a potential scenario where a “bad” team could potentially become a “good” value wager.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Carolina last year, as its defense was better than its reputation, allowing 21 points or less in six of its 11 games after the bye. Now, that might not sound like much, but this was a two-win team whose defense was on the field for extensive minutes. Bryce Young was doomed as a rookie playing in an exceptionally bad offense that had little more than the aging Adam Thielen. He gets a massive improvement in schedule strength, a new offensive scheme, and added Diontae Johnson and the rookie Xavier Legette.

New Orleans went 9-8 last year but missed the playoffs for the third year in a row, as they still try to move on from the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. In his two years since taking over the Saints, head coach Dennis Allen is just 13-20-1 ATS. In 2023, the Saints were favored in 13 of their 17 games, mostly because of a weak division, but they went just 6-10-1 against the number. Fortunes have changed greatly for them in 2024, as New Orleans is favored in just seven of its 17 games on the lookahead lines. The oddsmakers are not optimistic about the Saints' season, and that stance should not be ignored here in Week 1.

A big reason for this pessimism is the fact that the Saints replaced multiple starters on the offensive line, which now has them rated among the worst protection units in the league. Yes, that goes for run and pass blocking. Further, offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s game plans are hard on O-lines, and it’s going to be asking a lot of this unit to improve on last season's dismal yards per carry, which ranked 31 of 32 teams, and protect QB Derek Carr, who was on the run for his life in 2023, where he was ranked as the 24th-best qualified passer when under pressure.

Market perception is that the Panthers are dregs, but we don’t know that for sure, and neither does anyone else. All that matters here is that the Panthers stock is in the toilet which means they are undervalued and taking back inflated points. The Saints don’t look so hot either, and until they prove they are worthy of spotting points, we’re not going to back them. Recommendation: Carolina +4

Indianapolis +2½ over Houston

1:00 PM EST. No team overachieved like the Texans did in 2023, as they posted a 10-7 record and made a playoff appearance under rookie pivot C.J. Stroud, who became the league’s next "great" quarterback after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in the process. Stroud wasn’t the only first-year player to take home the hardware, as defensive end Will Anderson won Defensive Rookie of the Year as well. The Texans went on to upset the Browns in the Wild Card game before losing to the Ravens in the Divisional round. The Texans won just three games in 2022, so they were able to sneak up on a lot of teams, but that won’t be the case this season. The Texans are dripping with hype and they aren’t going to surprise anyone in 2024.

The Colts season looked to go up in smoke after rookie QB Anthony Richardson was injured in Week 5, but they managed to finish 9-8 and played in a winner-take-all game for the AFC South with the Texans in Week 18, coming up just short in a 23-19 defeat. Here in 2024, Richardson appears to be healthy and ready to go for Week 1, and the Colts feature an elite defensive line led by Kwity Paye and DeForest Buckner, which will carry the load for the front seven and a young secondary.

We’re in the business of fading public perception, overreactions, buying high and selling low. The hype on Houston is off the charts while none of the talk shows or TV previews are even mentioning the Colts. That fits right into our wheelhouse in Week 1, as oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate the price on the road Texans in order to try and balance the books. That provides us with this outstanding opportunity to buy low on the Colts and sell very high on the Texans. Recommendation: Indianapolis +2½

New England +9 over Cincinnati

1:00 PM EST. No longer are the Bengals expectations low, as they are once again tapped, along with the Ravens, to be in a position to win the AFC North (+165). They are expected to make the playoffs, with those odds coming in at -240. 2023 was a bust after Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending injury, but expectations are high in 2024, with the Bengals season win total being posted at 10½ and being favored in 14 of their 17 games this seasonThat said, the offseason was not stress-free in Cincinnati, as star WR Ja’Marr Chase remains in a contract dispute, although he didn’t “hold out.” Instead, he went to Bengals camp to attend off-field activities, which means he didn’t practice. As for the defense, this is a unit that finished the season near the bottom of the table (27th) in EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed per play due to their propensity to give up big plays of 20+ yards both in the air (65) and on the ground (17). Prospects for the Bengals' defense are not all that positive this season either, which is not conducive to laying significant piles of points.

It’s the end of another era in New England, as former football czar Bill Belichick finally hung up his mustard-stained, sleeveless, hooded sweatshirt for the last time at Gillette Stadium. Replacing “The Hoodie” is protégé Jerod Mayo, who was the Patriots' inside linebackers coach from 2019-2023 after playing for the Pats and B.B. from 2008-2015. Mayo may have the distinction of coming from the Belichick coaching tree, but the oddsmakers are not giving him any respect, as the Pats are pegged to post the lowest win total in the NFL at 4½. The lookahead lines are not optimistic about the post-G.O.A.T. coach era either, with the Patriots posted as a pooch in every game, where they are getting an average of five points per contest. New England is taking back at least +3½ points in 13 of their 17 games.

The strength of the Patriots is going to once again be their defense, which ranked in the top-8 in many underlying metrics last season, including DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and EPA. As for the offense, we get it—going with veteran Jacoby Brissett, when there is a top-3 pick in Drake Maye in the fold, isn’t sexy, but in Week 1, Brissett gives the Patriots the best chance to cover these inflated points and send those that back New England to the cashier’s window. Recommendation: New England +9

Tennessee +4 over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. The Titans will have more than just a new coat of paint after sending former head coach Mike Vrabel packing and replacing him with Brian Callahan. They also let the face of the franchise, Derrick Henry leave in free agency, with the former NFL leading rusher signing a two-year deal with the Ravens to chase a Super Bowl. On offense, this will be QB Will Levis’ first full year as the starting pivot. He did struggle at times last season, but he also showed some promising flashes, and he’s currently being overshadowed by a hyped rookie class and the likes of C.J. Stroud, who is already on the national radar.

The defense is where the Titans are really going to look like a completely different team. New defensive coordinator Dennar Wilson specializes in a high-pressure philosophy that aims to generate game-changing plays like sacks and turnovers. That D-unit can only go up, as it was as sturdy as a two-legged table last season. However, the additions of L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, Jamal Adams, and Quandre Diggs bring a level of competence the Titans lacked last year. Diggs, a former three-time Pro Bowler and one of the biggest names in the free-agent market, instantly gave Wilson credibility, as he chose to sign with the rebuilding Titans rather than a contender. All this contributes to the Titans' low standing in the market, with their season win total set at just 6½ and they are underdogs in all but one of their games on the lookahead lines.

By contrast, there is hype in Chicago with #1-overall pick Caleb Williams taking over for Justin Fields at the league’s most important position in the third-largest market in the country. The Bears went 7-10 last season, but they are expected to improve by a couple of games, with their season win total odds posted at 8½ (over -160). If that wasn’t enough, the Bears are also favored in 10 games this year on the lookaheads after being favored just 10 times total over the last three seasons.

Williams may be the franchise QB the Bears have always wanted, but the hype surrounding him and his team is off the charts. The front office has surrounded Williams with name-brand WRs in DJ Moore, the often-injured Keenan Allen, and highly rated rookie Rome Odunze, as well as star runner D’Andre Swift. However, these additions only further inflate the expectations on Williams and the Bears. Moreover, Moore and the rest of the squad are learning a new offense under OC Shane Waldron. Expecting a rookie QB in a new offense with new players to cover a number in Week 1 is a badge of honor that the Bears have not earned. Recommendation: Tennessee +4

N.Y. Giants +1½ over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. Is there a high-profile team with a lower standing in the market than the Giants? A season on “Hard Knocks” has done little to excite the media or the market about another year under head coach Brian Daboll and quarterback Daniel Jones. In fact, it may have harmed their brand, as it looks like the same old Giants, but worse, having lost their only notable player in Saquon Barkley to the rival Eagles. There were other comings and goings, including drafting WR Malik Nabors in round one, but the books have the G-Men finishing about where they did last year at 6-11. The fact that the Giants are a home dog to a Sam Darnold-led football team in 2024 tells you everything you need to know about their stock.

As for the Darnold-helmed Vikings, is this not a little “spendy,” as they say in Minnesota, with the Purple People Eaters coming into this game as a small road favorite? Out is Kirk Cousins, who took the money in Atlanta, and in is Darnold, who was expected to compete with rookie J.J. McCarthy for the starting job but had the reins handed to him after McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury. Darnold is a former #2 overall pick, but he’s never had sustained success, or really any success in the league, and he is just not the quality of QB who should be favored on the road. The Vikings have the best WR in the game in Justin Jefferson, but he’s coming off a major injury, and his partner, Jordan Addison, is also hurt. Perhaps the Vikes don’t miss a beat with Darnold, but until we see it, we aren’t interested in spotting even the smallest pile of road points with them. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants +1½

Miami -3½ -110 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. The Jaguars were the darlings of the first half of last season, going 8-3, before December hit and they went ice cold, closing out the year 1-5, finishing at 9-8, and on the outside looking in on the playoffs. While expectations have been tempered somewhat by the bookies (the Jags post an 8½ win total), they are a team that the market has some faith in as an underdog in this spot. That has a lot to do with the +3½ points they are taking, as that “hook” on a key number like “3” can be very appealing. However, it’s important to note that the oddsmakers know this. You are not getting an “edge” when you take the “hook”; you are biting on the bait, hook, line, and sinker.

On the field, Jacksonville had a massive overhaul on the defensive side after bringing in new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who brings a mix of different fronts and an uptick in intensity, which all sounds good at the press conference but will be harder to execute.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are lost in the shuffle of the AFC East, with the Jets and Bills getting most of the attention. That potentially presents some value in them as a short favorite in Week 1. Miami is expected to post double-digit wins, and that’s because they have an elite offense that is well-balanced. As long as Tua Tagovailoa is upright, the Fish are a threat to put up a crooked number. The Fish have a pair of stud WRs, and they now have a three-headed monster at RB, with rookie Jaylen Wright joining Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, who were a top-5 duo in Expected Points Added (EPA) in 2023. The Dolphins are not in the discussion among the league’s elite, but perhaps they should be. Either way, they are short-priced and spotting deflated points to a poser. Recommendation: Miami -3½

Dallas +2½ -110 over Cleveland

4:25 PM EST. The Cowboys might be “America’s Team,” but they’ve been a target of the talking heads this offseason after their financial handling of both star QB Dak Prescott and WR Ceedee Lamb, and their lack of spending in free agency. The Cowboys also lost defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who left to become the head coach in Washington, but he was replaced with veteran Mike Zimmer. The Cowboys ranked fourth in defensive EPA per play last season.

While Prescott’s future in Dallas is uncertain, the results on the field have been solid. In his first year in Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, Prescott threw a league-high 36 TD passes in 2023, and he’s tossed 30 or more majors in three of the last five seasons. Despite the media being down on the Cowboys, the books are not, as they rank near the top four of the conference futures, their win total is projected at 10 victories (10½ under -200), and lookaheads have Dallas as the betting chalk in 14 of their 17 games, but Week 1 is not one of them.

Depending on the talking head or the publication, expectations range for the Browns, but there are those who peg them to take a step forward this season after they won 11 games with Deshaun Watson on the sidelines and Joe Flacco finishing the season and leading them to the playoffs, where they lost to Houston in the Wild Card round. The Browns were also without runner Nick Chubb, who will begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list after he blew out his knee. As far as additions go, the Browns added former first-round pick WR Jerry Jeudy from Denver, as well as crab thief himself, Jameis Winston, to back up Watson.

Market perception is that if the Browns could win with a 5-QB carousel last season, surely they can be better with a healthy Watson, but that’s a big ask. Not that they can’t be better, but that Watson stays healthy, as he’s played in just 12 games in his two years in Cleveland. Regardless, in Week 1, the Browns are favored in a game that we’re not sure they should be. We don’t care if this game was being played in Jim Brown’s backyard, as the Cowboys are the superior side here according to win total projections (Cleveland’s win projection is 8 1⁄2 while Dallas’ is 10½) but that is not reflected in this line. Recommendation: Dallas +2½

Tampa Bay -3½ -110 over Washington

4:25 PM EST. Oh look, there's a new rookie quarterback in Washington, set to lead the Commanders out of the darkness—ho-hum, yawn. We offer no apologies to rookie Jayden Daniels, as he's just the latest in a line of pivots tasked with trying to pump life into a lifeless franchise, just like Sam Howell, Dwayne Haskins, and Robert Griffin III before him. Howell was the most recent experiment, getting one year as the starter before being traded to Seattle so the new ownership group in D.C. could start all over again.

Not only is there a new QB, but Dan Quinn is now the head coach after spending time in Dallas as the defensive coordinator, following his epic Super Bowl collapse with the Falcons. It remains to be seen if Quinn has recovered from that choke job or if those ghosts will haunt him in Washington. Quinn brings with him failed former head coach of the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury, but it's not like Kingsbury was able to win games with Kyler Murray. So again, what makes Daniels so special? The fact is, the Commanders had a weak offensive line in 2023 that gave up 65 sacks, and this year's unit doesn’t project to be much better. You can’t win games if your QB is on his back or running for his life.

The Buccaneers don’t have much hype around them this season, but with Baker Mayfield at QB and a veteran receiving core around him, they could be better than market expectations. The Bucs are expected to be a middle-of-the-road team, with their season win total posted at eight, and they're favored in half of their games on the lookahead lines. In Week 1, they aren’t getting much attention, and we're seeing plenty of picks coming in on the Commanders as a pooch, but starting a rookie QB on the road while taking back deflated points is not a wager we can get excited about. Recommendation: Tampa Bay -3½

L.A. Rams +4½ -110 over Detroit

8:20 PM EST. The Rams were a surprise in 2023 and were market darlings, going 11-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS). L.A. isn’t likely going to sneak up on anyone this season. However, in Week 1, they are up against an even bigger market star in the Detroit Lions, who, under Dan Campbell, have gone 37-17 ATS since 2021. A 68.5% winning clip ATS gets noticed in the media and the market, and it’s been a major talking point for analysts, which is why this line has continued to move up since it opened with the Lions laying -3 points to the price you now see posted.

The Lions carry the weight of a championship-starved city after blowing a 24-7 halftime lead to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. The Lions may take the next step toward their goal of a Super Bowl, but regardless of that, the Lions have been covering at an enormously high rate and therefore their stock is soaring heading into the season. It may be justified but there is no question that in Week 1, in prime time to close out the first Sunday of the season, the Lions are going to get hammered by the market. That’s not the side we want to be on.

Already, the market has shown their hand here, as it is solidly behind the Lions. Since we are not in the business of predicting games but rather fading public perception and overreactions, the prudent play here on Sunday Night Football is to take the inflated points with the Rams. Recommendation: L.A. Rams +4½