Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 8:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Miami -14 over Las Vegas
1:00 PM EST. To no one’s surprise, the Miami Dolphins are one of the league’s premiere offenses. No team is more explosive (0.515 points per play) or accrues more yards on average every week (435.3). Second-year coach Mike McDaniel and his quarterback have formed a noticeable bond that’s as crucial to their offense’s success as any matchup advantage or scheme. Coming off a bye-week, the Dolphins head home after falling short in Germany against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. The Chiefs were coming into that game after a loss and last year’s champions are never an easy opponent, so we won’t go overboard or overreact on Miami’s stumble in Frankfurt. What we can anticipate, however, is a Dolphins’ offense getting back to what it does best on its home field in a very winnable matchup in Week 11.
The motivation will surely be there. Despite a loss in Week 9, the Dolphins lead the AFC East. Their next four games will give them a great chance to extend that lead (LV, NYJ, WAS, TEN), starting with Sunday against the Raiders. Antonio Pierce has led a resurgent effort in Vegas, replacing the maligned Josh McDaniels as the anti-snob, a hard-nosed ex-player who grew up in southern California and won at the highest level with the New York Giants. Rookie QB Aidan O’Connell is playing well and throwing with confidence as the black and silver’s new starter, Devante Adams went from slamming his helmet on the sidelines to dancing in the locker room since the change, and most importantly– Vegas has won two straight under their new coach. We’re confident that’ll come to an abrupt end in Week 11.
This line is huge for a reason. McDaniel is one of the most creative offenses coaches in modern history, the results in 1.5 years of Miami-offense under his direction are clear, and it’s not like the Raiders have been beating up on world-class franchises. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL, and the Jets’ are highly mistake prone and their offense has no explosiveness whatsoever. Hard Rock Stadium against the Fins’ offense is a drastic, overwhelming task for a Raiders’ defense that’s held up but lacks talent and gets exposed against better operations (Bills, Chargers, Lions this season). It won’t be easy for O’Connell against an improving and aggressive Miami defense, either. The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS at home under McDaniel and despite the big spread, they’re the only way we can look.
Miami -14 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)