Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 8:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Tennessee +6½ over Jacksonville
1:00 PM EST. The Titans and the Jaguars didn’t have very good Week 10s. Of course Jacksonville’s defeat felt more disappointing. The Jaguars were off a bye-week and hosting one of the best teams in the NFL. That team, the 49ers, was also coming off a bye-week, but even more importantly– they were coming off three straight losses. Beating or even competing with San Francisco when they’re playing with that level of desperation would prove the Jaguars are truly ready to be an “elite.” Needless to say, that didn’t come to be. After five straight wins, the Jags were obliterated by the Niners 34-3 at home. They were outgained 437 to 221 in total yards. Even worse, Trevor Lawrence had one of the most abysmal games of his career, forcing errant throws and making bad decisions throughout the contest (185 yards, 2 INTs, 0 TDs). Warren Sharp also tweeted out an interesting statistic, noting that Lawrence is one of the worst QBs against a blitz among all NFL throwers. On Sunday the humbled Jags will face a team bent on revenge after getting swept last season, and a defense with talented pass-rushers. We don’t exactly love that for the home-team.
Tennessee lost in Week 10 but it felt like it was more about the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs came out on fire, hitting hard on defense and limiting rookie QB Will Levis. Reminiscent of their glory days, the Bucs held Derrick Henry and his colleagues to only 42 yards on the ground. The Titans just looked surprised. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans connected constantly against a Titan’s secondary that looked lost, and Levis struggled moving the ball all game. He threw under 50% for only 199 yards and an INT– a vastly different look than his performance the week prior.
The TItans are hard to trust. Their offense hasn’t had much of a spark all season (28th in ppg–17.1, 27th in ypg– 291,7). They’ve also had a fairly easy schedule the first half of the season, yet they’re still just 3-6. They’ve lost to teams like New Orleans, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and last week Tampa Bay. Surely the Jags are better, right?
It doesn’t quite work that way in sports betting. This is still a divisional arch-rival, Will Levis is an x-factor that a young Jags’ defense could overlook, and Tennessee would love to exact revenge after last year’s 0-2 result. Just like Mike Tomlin, Mike Vrabel has a way of motivating his team after a loss. Last season was an anomaly without a true starting QB, but Vrabel was 4-1 ATS in 2021 and he’s 3-2 ATS this season after an L. The Jags probably win, but we expect a closely-fought game.
Tennessee +6½ +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)