Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Tennessee +130 over Tampa Bay
1:00 PM EST. The challenge here is trying to find which team holds more value or specifically which team has less market appeal. The 3-5 Buccaneers lost their fourth-straight game with an impressive defensive collapse that allowed C.J. Stroud to set several NFL rookie records, however, Tampa still scored a pile of points while Tennessee can’t score any and market propensity is to side with the team that can score. Nobody likes to wager on a football team that can’t move five yards. Tennessee has scored 16 points three times this year, 3 points once and 15 points once while Tampa is coming off a big output and has covered the past two weeks.
The glow from the Titans win over the visiting Falcons didn't last long. Now the Titans are mercifully moving on from Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback, with rookie Will Levis officially being named the starter for the rest of the season by head coach Mike Vrabel this week. Levis has two turns as the starting pivot under his belt, going 1-1, but there was much to like in the loss he took on the road on a short week on Thursday Night Football in Pittsburgh to kick off Week 9. Levis went 22-for-39 for 262 yards and an interception in his second start, first on the road, in an incredibly hostile environment in Steeletown, and he had his team in a position to win the game, as the Titans led 16-13 after three quarters. This kid looks very good to us. There is no shame in that loss, and it speaks volumes about what the Titans think of Levis that they made this move. Levis is completing 60.3% of his passes in his limited action this season, and he’s thrown for 500 yards and four touchdowns with that one INT last week. Meanwhile, Tannehill had two touchdowns to six INTs in his six starts, and he posts the third-worst QBR by qualified starters, with only Zach Wilson and Bryce Young behind him. Tannehill on the bench is perfect.
You know what else is perfect and that we’ve read in a million places? Tampa is tough to score on. Only five teams are allowing fewer points per game than the Buccaneers. That’s nice it really is but Tampa gives up a brick load of yardage so that misleading stat is worthless. The reason they have not allowed points is nothing but pure luck, as teams have consistently kicked themselves in the foot when getting into the Red Zone on this garbage defense. Only three teams in the entire league have surrendered more yards than the Bucs. Do not buy into the 5th fewest points allowed narrative because that’s about to blow up and we’re strongly suggesting that Levis, Derrick Henry, et all will expose this lousy bunch for what they truly are and win going away.
Tennessee +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)