Arizona @ Cleveland
Arizona/Cleveland under 38

Posted at 09:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U38½ -115 BET365  U38 -110 Sportsinteraction U38 -110 888Sport U37½ -110

Arizona/Cleveland under 38 -110

1:00 PM EST. It's incredible how public perception works. The Browns haven't had a formidable QB for the majority of this season, we could argue that's the case even when DeShaun Watson is starting, and yet they're getting diva-treatment from oddsmakers. We realize that the 1-7 Arizona Cardinals are throwing out rookie fifth round QB Clayton Tune, that doesn't sound very promising, but if you're betting on Cleveland you're also betting on a team that has one of the worst passing games in football. Hell it might be the worst. 

Cleveland is 32nd in pass completion percentage, 29th in yards per pass, 30th in pass yards per game, 31st in interceptions thrown, and 25th in sack rate. Yikes. The Cardinals' defense is young and overly aggressive at times, indicative of a first-year coach who's known for defensive prowess, but this is the easiest challenge Arizona will face all year. The Cardinals' previous six opponents were Dallas, San Francisco, Cincinnati, L.A. Rams, Seattle, and Baltimore - a who's who of exceptional offenses. They haven't fared well, allowing 27 ppg to those squads, but there's next-to-nothing that's explosive about the Browns. It might be a better matchup than oddsmakers are considering, too. Arizona really struggles preventing third-down-conversions (they allow a 45.26% conversion rate), but Cleveland only clears the marker on 31% of third downs, second-worst in the NFL.

DeShaun Watson will play this Sunday, but coming off a shoulder injury feels like one of the more limiting ailments. We're not so sure he'll be at 100%. Either way, we've discussed how big this spread is and how we lean the Cardinals' side, but there's a more obvious wager to play on here. How in hell are either of these teams going to score points? We don't know either. 

Cleveland will be windy and cold, both teams will unleash very vulnerable QBs, and both teams rely on their defenses. This feels a lot like Jets-Giants last week.



Our Pick

Arizona/Cleveland under 38 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

New England +218 over Pittsburgh