Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
NY Giants +151 over N.Y. Jets
1:00 PM EST. At the time of writing this the New York Giants are getting 3 points as the “home-team” in the battle of the Big Apple. Time to pump the breaks, Jetsons, although our favorite look is not the spread.
It’s hardly surprising that the Giants are 2-5 entering Week 8. NYG had one of the most difficult schedules to start the season of any team, battling a who’s who of elites right from Week 1. They faced five teams who currently have a winning record– Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo. They lost every game, although the Bills were extremely fortunate to come out the victor in Week 6. In the two games against teams with a losing record, they won. At 3-3, the Jets don’t fit either of those categories, but we damn sure don’t consider the Jets one of the elites. And we probably won’t until Aaron Rodgers returns.
The Jets’ defense can be really good. Normally they fall asleep for the first two quarters, but when they wake up and realize that, once again, the fate of the game rests on their collectively broad shoulders, step up they do. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, the two QBs in the Super Bowl last season, both threw three interceptions against the Jets’ secondary. One escaped with a win (Mahomes, what else is new), the other did not. On Sunday they’ll have to work against Tyrod Taylor, a wily veteran who’s made the Giants’ offense look more formidable in Daniel Jones’ absence. We have little doubt they can limit Taylor, it’s one of the reasons why the total is an insanely low 36½ points, and we’re certain the Giants can limit Zach Wilson, too.
Wilson has shown improvement in recent games and he deserves the credit. Although he’s been sacked 11 times in his last three games, he’s airing it out more and he’s only thrown one interception in the same span. He won’t get it any easier this week, though. The Giants’ defensive line came alive last Sunday against a soft Washington front, sacking Sam Howell on 6 different occasions and hitting him 4 times for good measure. Even with injuries in their secondary, their young talent has stepped up in recent outings, limiting Josh Allen and Sam Howell to a subpar 418 combined yards in two games. Big Blue is still permitting 5.0 yards per carry, a concerning data-point considering Breece Hall’s explosive running ability, but Zach Wilson isn’t about to pile up yards and touchdowns on this version of the Giants’ defense.
Going with the under might not be a bad idea here, and a total this low also complements the pooch. This is bound to be a close battle between two teams who want to say they “own” their city, and from where we’re sitting they don’t seem that disparate in ability. There’s only one way to look, under such circumstances.
NY Giants +151 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.02)