Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Seattle -4 over Cleveland
4:05 PM EST. The Cleveland Browns are getting a ton of love in the marketplace the last few weeks, mainly because of how stingy their defense has been. And isn't that sort of silly? Teams like the Patriots, Jets, Titans, Saints, and Steelers have all had the benefit of some truly exceptional defensive performance, yet they don't receive anywhere near the same affection from sportsbooks. Last week Cleveland was road chalk of over a field goal against a very feisty Colts team, for God's sake. We all know how that went. Of course most of the teams above haven't been able to scrounge as many wins together as the 4-2 Brownies, which is probably a big reason why sharps and oddsmakers have liked their side.
The market isn't as kind to them this week, however, and for good reason. Kevin Stefanski has already announced that PJ Walker will start. This isn't his first rodeo and he's played okay in two games, aka he's done enough, but no games over 200 yards passing and 3 INTs with no interceptions doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Plus, the Seahawks are one of the best run-defenses in football (3.5 yards per carry allowed, 3rd overall), and hyper-explosive RB Jerome Ford is unlikely to suit up for Cleveland this Sunday. Kareem Hunt is also banged up with a thigh injury. Either way, that sounds like a lot of PJ Walker's shoulders; not exactly ideal for the Browns on their second straight road spot.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, are playing beneath their ability and still getting it done. After a loss at Cincinnati, which was more about Cincinnati than the visiting Hawks, Seattle won and covered in a game where they let Arizona stick around for the majority of the contest. It was an average outing for Geno Smith and the offense, which is typical in a division game, but after two weeks of mediocre production we expect the Seahawks to explode in their second week at home. DK Metcalf, who's planning on returning, won't hurt their chances.
These are the dog-days of the Browns' NFL schedule and at a certain point, they're bound to get caught with a QB like PJ Walker leading their team. Geno Smith and the Seahawks have a great opportunity to keep pace with the 49ers in their second straight home game and we like them to take advantage.
Seattle -4 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)