Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Seattle -8 over Arizona
4:05 PM EST. Oddsmakers have been pushing this line down all week. Initially the line rose from -7.5 to as high as -9 at some books, but that didn’t last. Sharps and syndicates have pushed it back down to a not-so-humble 7.5-points in favor of the home team, perhaps in an effort to buy-back on both sides of the spread. Despite their lack of talent, the Cardinals have been a formidable opponent, but their brand as an ATS-darling is starting to flounder. We don’t think it’ll get any better this Sunday.
One of the biggest factors of this game is, believe it or not, the injury to Arizona running back James Conner. The veteran running back was playing his heart out for the Cardinals to start the season, breaking tackles and charging ahead in crucial game situations to sustain drives. He was greatly missed last week in their loss against the Rams and we could plainly see the difference his absence made on the field.
Arizona turned to a committee-approach in their run-game and it didn’t work. Thanks to some nice scrambling from Josh Dobbs, who’s played well at QB, they gained 130 yards rushing. However, a sporadic group of running backs only gained 83 yards on only 3.6 yards per carry. Consequently, the Arizona play-action pass-game never opened up and the Rams’ secondary was able to play free and aggressive.. The result– the Cardinals barely eclipsed 300 total yards and scored only 9 points. One week later, in their second straight road game, Jonathon Gannon’s team has the challenging task of another trip up to Lumen Field, arguably one of the toughest environments in pro-football. Yikes.
Enter the Seattle Seahawks. Off a loss in Cincinnati where their offense struggled to finish drives all game (5-12 on third down, 1-5 in the red-zone, 13 points), the Seahawks still outgained the Bengals 381-214 in Week 6. Geno Smith made some spectacular passes, but he was also sacked four times and threw two bad interceptions. It’s the kind of performance where a good offense like Seattle should be expected to turn around and show a much better result the following week. A tease, if you will.
And it’s not like the Arizona defense, although a try-hard unit that plays with a lot of tenacity week-to-week, is a unit that evokes fear. Over the last three weeks, they’re allowing 31.6 ppg and 386 yards per game. They also haven’t covered ATS in that span. As the pendulum swings and the 2023 NFL schedule nearly reaches the midway point, it begins to show its fans and bettors more clarity. The Cardinals are regressing back to the team many thought they were pre-season. If the Seahawks were coming off an all-out A+ effort last Sunday, this may be a letdown spot. Instead, Seattle is primed to blow out its divisional foe and we think that’s very likely.
Seattle -8 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)