Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +215  BET365 +215  Sportsinteraction +215 888Sport +215

Denver +215 over Miami

1:00 PM EST. As we head into Week 3 and public perception of teams becomes clearer, we’ll reiterate that we’re not in the prediction business. If we were, a case for wagering on Miami would be pretty damn easy. The 2-0 Dolphins are averaging 31 points per game and they’re coming off a primetime victory after beating the Chargers in their opener. As it stands now, the Fish have defeated both Justin Herbert and Bill Belichick, two figures with huge market respect and presence. Miami has also accomplished that 2-0 record on the road so this will be its first home game of the year and the place will be nuts. It’s been a long time since the Dolphins were relevant. Miami is also 2-0 Against the Spread (ATS).

Since we’re in the value business, buying Miami now, regardless of the outcome here, is buying high and it’s something we cannot get on board with. Buying Miami now is like betting on a horse at 2-1 the week after said horse won at 15-1. It’s a strategy we employ and one you’ll hear of often on here. In other words, you’re too late to the Miami ticket cashing party. There is a premium to pay after a team goes 2-0 both straight up and ATS and that premium is figured into the point-spread. Always look to sell high and buy low.

Then there’s the Denver Broncos. The frustration of close losses is building. The Broncos looked forward to the change in coaching, hoping that a train wreck of a season in 2022 was over and that a turnaround was in quick order. While the Broncs have been very competitive, they were favored in back-to-back home games to open the year and not only did they fail to cover but they also failed to win. Denver is now 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS. As a result of both teams' results, the Dolphins are overpriced while Denver is underpriced, which provides us with this great buy low/sell high opportunity. It’s also worth noting that the Fish will play Buffalo next week, which is without question, it’s most important two games of the season, thus, this game is sandwiched between New England in prime time last week and Buffalo next week.

Sherwood

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