Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Dallas/Arizona under 43½
4:25 EST. If you're one of the many Cowboy-haters across America, you're probably not very happy about the way this season has started. Both New York franchises have been obliterated by Dallas through two weeks, creating a litany of impressive stats for Jerry Jones' franchise. Out-scoring your opponents 70-10 and out-gaining your opponents 647-386 will do that. Eventually their statistical dominance will regress as the Cowboys face teams that present stronger resistance on both sides of the ball, but it's unlikely that'll come this weekend. Although it's worth noting - this is a very sleepy spot for the surging Boys.
Dallas heads back on the road to face the Arizona Cardinals, a team with the lowest predicted win-total this season. It's plain to see why. Without star QB Kyler Murray, the Cardinals are forced to play Josh Dobbs. The journeyman thrower hasn't looked too bad, actually, despite the lack of talent and protection around him. Their best chance to hang in this game will be through James Conner. Conner showed great burst last week against an above-average Giants' front-seven, gaining over 100 yards and helping the Cardinals maintain a lead for most of the game. Of course we saw what Dallas did to the Giants in Week 1, we're hardly comparing the two, but run-defense is the only area that's been a little subpar for the Cowboys' defense so far. Dallas has allowed 89 rush yards per game, but that's actually not very impressive. They took early leads against the Giants and Jets in Weeks 1 and 2, forcing their offensive coordinators into a more pass-happy approach in an attempt to close the margin. Dallas is allowing nearly 4 yards per rush (3.9 to be exact, ranked 16th overall) through two games, and Arizona is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, a top 10 mark.
The Arizona defense hasn't been terrible, either. They shut out Daniel Jones and the Giants' defense in the first two quarters last week, and they nearly beat the Commanders on the road in Week 1. A young, energetic front-seven sacked Sam Howell six times in that contest, a big part of why they were able to keep the game close. If they can get to Dak Prescott and limit their offensive production early, they can keep the score within range. Of course that's easier said than done against an extremely talented Cowboy-offense, but that begs the biggest question for this Week 3 matchup - how much does Dallas care?
Of course the Cowboys want to win, but this feels more like an "avoid injury and get out of dodge" situation. Dallas and Arizona are both top 5 in sack percentage through two weeks, and both teams lean on their run-games to establish ball control early. Jonathon Gannon, whose defense helped the Eagles get to the Super Bowl last year, seems to be making an impact on his team. We're seeing more effort and more energy from the Arizona defense, and that might be enough to snag an ATS cover. On the other hand, if Dallas plays the same way they have through two weeks, this one shouldn't be close. The best angle is to consider betting the under in what should be a slower-paced, defensive battle.
Dallas/Arizona under 43½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)