Posted at 11:15 AM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +13½ +106 BET365 +14 -110 SportsInteraction +14 -110 888Sport +14 -110

Miami +13½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM EST. The contrasting storylines coming from each side of this game are about as wide and vast as the point-spread you see posted for this third round between the Bills and Dolphins. There are those who like the good news first because it makes it easier to take the bad news. That is the approach we’ll take here.

Like everyone who watched the drama unfold on Monday Night Football and anyone else that was moved by the incredible story of Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin, who suffered a cardiac event during their Week 17 Monday night game in Cincinnati, we are relieved that Hamlin is now on the road to recovery, which is damn near a miracle in itself. Hamlin was discharged from a Buffalo hospital earlier this week after he passed a number of tests, and he even showed up to the Bills stadium in Orchard Park to hang out with his teammates yesterday. There is some chatter that Hamlin will be at the game to cheer on the Bills.

There is a perception in the market that the Bills are going to want to win this one and much more for Hamlin, and they may, but there is a premium to be paid to side with that inspirational storyline. The Bills closed out the season with a 35-23 win in New England, which eliminated the Patriots from playoff contention, while also opening the door for the Dolphins, who come into this game at just about their lowest point of the season.

The Fish will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, while running back Raheem Mostert broke his thumb, and linebacker Bradley Chubb has a bad ankle. Both did not practice this week. If all of that wasn’t enough, Miami is down three offensive linemen as well. As AFC East rivals, the Bills and Dolphins played twice this season, but there is little to be taken from either one of those games, as Tua started both contests. Backup Teddy Bridgewater is nursing a sore thumb, which means third stringer Skylar Thompson will be thrust back into action.

We are not going to debate that the Bills are the superior side here. Buffalo was the best team in the regular season by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). It was also the only team ranked in the top five on offense (1st), defense (4th) and special teams (1st). The Bills average scoring margin of +10.6 was tops league wide, and their seven double-digit wins were tied for the second-most in the NFL. All that to say, the market is not going to be phased by laying this heavy lumber.

Winning and covering are two different beasts. The pointspread is supposed to be the great equalizer, and when you combine this inflated price with the posted total (just 43), it’s going to be an uphill climb for Buffalo to cash this ticket unless the Dolphins totally implode (which could happen). It’s going to be cold in Buffalo this afternoon with freezing temperatures expected at kick-off. Those conditions are also not conducive to spotting an inflated price. Again, if the Dolphins feed the Bills’ D a few turnovers or allow Nyheim Hines to return a couple of kicks for touchdowns this week as he did last, it’s going to get ugly, but one cannot predict those in-game variances. While we are going to sit this one out (cause we believe Buffalo will win by 45), we cannot recommend that you get caught holding a bag full of inflated points. (No bets).

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