Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.
N.Y. Jets +3½ over Miami
1:00 PM EST. The Jets might be eliminated (projected to pick at No. 13 in the draft), but the Dolphins still have a lot to play for in Week 18. They need a win and Patriots loss to clinch the final AFC playoff spot. They have a 49.5% chance, per ESPN's FPI. In other words, Miami has everything to play for while the Jets have nothing to play for, yet oddsmakers have posted a price on Miami that is begging you to play them (opened at -2) We cannot overemphasize how playing the “must-win” angle is one of the worst angles in all of sports betting.
Do you think the oddsmakers are not aware of the scenarios? You think they posted this line without considering the motivation levels or situation? You are going to read, see or hear two dozen times or more about how the Dolphins must win this game and therefore will be more motivated. The streets of Las Vegas are lined with ripped tickets from the final week of the season on teams that needed to win but didn’t. We are urging you to not be influenced by the talking heads spurting out the “must-win” angle.
The other side of that coin is that the Jets are free-rolling here without a care in the world while the pressure is on Miami to deliver. For the J-Men, this is a playoff game because if they win, they knock off one of their most hated rivals. You don’t think the Jets want to knock Miami out of the playoffs? The Jets might bring more intensity here than any other game thay have played this year and they’ll be playing it pressure free.
HC Mike McDaniel said Tua Tagovailoa is out this week and they will likely end up with Skylar Thompson since Teddy (Wobbly Balls) Bridgewater injured his hand last week when he hit a helmet after a throw. Ironically, Bridgewater started Week 5 to replace Tagovailoa and he was concussed to start the game so Skylar Thompson stepped in to pass for just 166 yards and one interception. Bridgewater threw a few short passes to a team staffer during the portion of practice open to reporters. He was seen throwing somewhat longer passes after practicing, but Skylar Thompson continued to take the majority of practice snaps and remains in line to start barring a quick, surprising and significant recovery from Bridgewater. Veteran Mike Glennon, added to the practice squad this week, also has been getting practice reps.
Here are your choices:
Joe Flacco will be getting the nod and will be playing with house money. He has a great defense with nothing to lose and a chance to knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs or Skylar Thompson and a garbage defense with everything to lose and a ton of pressure on them to win. “Must win” this!
N.Y. Jets +3½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)