Buffalo @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati +125 over Buffalo

Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +122 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +125 888Sport +120

Cincinnati +112 over Buffalo

The most underrated elite team in the NFL hosts a meaningful Monday nighter here. The 11-4 Bengals and 12-3 Bills have both beaten Kansas City. In the AFC, the Bills look to take another step toward home-field advantage and a first-round bye with a win here while the Bengals can claim the AFC North Division title with a win or tie against the Bills.

The Bills’ pass defense has a terrific reputation...until it plays a good pass offense and gives up more yards and points than usual after shutting down pass-poor opposition like the Jets twice, the Pats twice, the Titans, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Week 7 Pack, the Bears and the Rams. Buffalo’s defensive numbers are skewed to a large degree because they’ve played offenses that cannot move forward. When Buffalo played Cleveland,  Minnesota, the Lions and Miami for instance, the defense gave up a boatload of points and yards.

The Bengals are on a seven-game winning streak, the longest in the AFC. They were 4-4 at midseason and on a mission thereafter. While only one had a winning record when they played, it was the Chiefs in Week 13 in which they held Patrick Mahomes to just 223 yards. Joe Burrow is once again terrorizing NFL teams, Also, whereas Burrow’s sacks are down this season over last, Josh Allen’s are up. Small edges here and there, but the crowd will be taking their shirts off and painting “Welcome to the Jungle'' on their chests in what figures to be a playoff atmosphere. Buffalo has struggled against some mediocre teams lately like Minnesota, the Jets, the Fish and the Brownies for instance and as a result, we have a difficult time understanding why the Bengals are a home dog on this stage. It’s not like Burrows and the Bengals haven’t played in big games before.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)