Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.

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Atlanta +3½ @ Washington

1:00 PM EST. The Falcons finally got back on the board with a win and cover over Chicago last Sunday, but it was not convincing. At one point, the Dirty Birds were the hottest team at the pay window. They were gushing profits like a broken slot machine with covers in six straight games to start the season. Atlanta would come crashing back to earth with four straight losses Against the Spread (ATS), and we doubt that their razor sharp advantage across the finish line last week will have much of an influence when considering the Commanders current turn.

The former Football Team is on a burner, as the Commanders are winners of five or their last six, and most importantly, they are 4-0-1 against the spread. Washington is paying out like a lobby group to your favorite corrupt senator.

Taylor Heineke has been the biggest benefactor of Washington’s mid-season resurgence, but forgive us if we can’t get excited about this Great Value Brett Favre. We’ve suggested in the past that Heinicke isn’t much better than your average run of the mill pivot, but after last week's 23-10 win over Houston as a 3-point favorite, G.V.B.F. has now crossed the Mendoza line and is not just barely better than your average run of the mill pivot, as his DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) is now 57 yards to the good. Dude still sports a negative QB DVOA of -8.3%, which has Heinicke slotted with the likes of Zach Wilson, but you gotta take the positives when they come, ya know?

Set everything aside here and what you are left with is a Washington team whose stock hasn’t been this high in years. They are cashing like crazy and doing so with ease. We cannot overemphasize how big a liability Houston was last week to books world-wide. You talk about a Thanksgiving feast and that was the game that had the market smoking cigars after cashing their tickets. Vegas reported it was one of their five highest losses in a single game all year in all sports combined. Now the market has an 11 against a dealer’s 6 in a game of blackjack and trust us when we suggest they are about to double down. If you bet Washington here, you may win but you are too late to the party. All the value is gone with the more likely scenario being that Washington loses outright and maybe by a wide margin. The party is over, friends.