Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.

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Tampa Bay @ Cleveland +3

1:00 PM EST. We vowed weeks ago to never wager another dollar on Thomas Patrick Edward Brady Jr. and we are not going to reverse course in light of Tampa Bay’s 21-6 win over the Seahawks in Germany in Week 11. The Buccaneers were off last week, but we would not be surprised if Brady shacked up with a German supermodel and took his sweet time coming back to North America.

While the G.O.A.T. was chasing tale abroad, the Browns were in Detroit to play the Bills after their game was moved from Buffalo because of Mother Nature. Cleveland dropped that one, 31-23, and has now lost six of their last seven games. Help may be on the way, as Desahun Watson is set to return from suspension next week, but that isn’t going to give the Browns much of a lift here, as Jacoby Brissett is going to make at least one more start. That presents an opportunity to back Cleveland while its stock is in the tank.

With market perception being what it is, The Buccaneers may look like they are being offered up at a discount, but that is simply not the case. When looking at the goods under the hood, the Bradys and Browns are much closer to each other than one might think. The Bucs are the #12 ranked team by weighted DVOA, while the Brownies are 16th. Perhaps most surprising is that the Cleveland offense is fourth, while the Bucs’ is 17th. Cleveland is a run first team that is built for this time of the year. The weather is supposed to be wet and chilly, which only further plays into the Browns’ strengths. The Bradys also host Monday Night Football next week, which checks another box, as the Browns catch Tampa in a potential lookahead spot with the bright lights of prime time on deck.