Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Baltimore -13 over Carolina
1:00 PM EST. The Ravens have developed a reputation this season as a team that can’t finish games. Baltimore notably blew big leads to Miami, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and the Giants. In their last six, the Ravens have covered just twice, once as a -1-point favorite over New Orleans and the other as a two point pooch to Tampa Bay. Baltimore is just 1-4-1 against the spread when favoried from 3-to-6½-points. That mark of 6½-points is the largest margin the oddsmakers have asked Baltimore to cover this season. How can the books ask them to now spot a price double that?
We are not the only ones who initially thought this price was a little spendy, but after diving into this game. It starts to make much more sense. The Ravens, while not regarded as elite at the moment, are. Over at Football Outsiders, Baltimore is the third ranked squad, sitting just behind Buffalo and Philadelphia. What would the Bills be this week at home to Carolina? What about Philly? By contrast, the Panthers are ranked 30th. That position flatters the Cats as well, as their 29th ranked special teams are propping up the 31st ranked offense and a defense that is dead last in the league at 32nd. The return of Baker Mayfield is the last notable point that needs to be addressed on the Panthers’ side, but do not buy into any talking head that suggests Carolina is better with back than it was with Walker.
This season, teams favored by double digits have not fared well. It was a much different story last season, where the big favorites seemingly rolled week in and week out. When the Eagles fell outright as an 11-point favorite on Monday Night Football to Washington, they became the third team this season to lose outright when giving double digits to the opposition. The other two wins were by the Jets v Buffalo in Week 9 and the Panthers against the Buccaneers in Week 7. Favorites of 10 or more are now just 6-6 against the spread this season. Those results are not lost on this market, as the Commanders were heavily bet on MNF.
Prime time games have a large audience and therefore many wagers. The last time the Panthers took the field it was to kick off Week 10 on Thursday Night Football. Carolina was a popular fade in the market, as it had just come off a blowout loss in Cincinnati in Week 9. The Panthers would knock off the Falcons with ease, winning that game, 25-15. That prime time victory sets up the opportunity for a “zig-zag” in the market. That so many just cashed tickets taking back double digits is going to further increase the curb appeal of these points. Don’t get caught gawking and keep on walking.
Baltimore -13 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)