Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.
N.Y. Giants -3 over Detroit
1:00 PM EST. As if beating the Packers in Week 9 wasn't enough, the Lions took down the Bears in Chicago last week in a 31-30 shootout. It was an exhilarating win for Detroit, who rallied from 13 down to steal the victory and it also snapped a 13-game road losing streak. Most importantly, Vegas reported that they badly needed the Lions to cover against Green Bay two weeks ago and even more so last week in Chicago. The point is a high majority of wagers were against Detroit for two weeks in a row and now that same majority will be very tempted to switch gears (zig-zag) and jump on the Lions. If you wager on Detroit this week, you may cash but you would also be committing two cardinal sins of wagering. First, is the aforementioned zig-zag and second, you would be buying Detroit when their stock is at its highest point of the season. If you bet the Giants and won last week, we don’t have to tell you how extremely lucky and agonizing it was to watch that game. The Giants covered because the Texans turned the ball over three times in the red zone and twice inside the 10-yard line. The Texans had more first downs, more total yards and outgained the Giants through the air by more than 100 yards. Thus, not only do you have bettors that wagered on the Giants wanting no part of that experience again, those that bet Houston (like us), absolutely know how lucky the Giants were and will want to bet against them again. It’s not just last week with the Giants either. The week prior, they lost by 14 to Seattle, the week prior, they had another lucky victory v Jacksonville. The list goes on all season of how the Giants pulled a horseshoe out of their ass and won. You may also hear about how the Giants have the Cowboys on deck next week on Thanksgiving Thursday, a tradition in Dallas for decades. Trust us, we don’t want to spot -3 points with the Giants either but we’ll reiterate that we’re not in the prediction business. Furthermore, Detroit playing on Thanksgiving Thursday in the early time slot is also a Thanksgiving tradition that goes back to 1934. Detroit will host Buffalo, which is not only a massive game but the Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving for five years so that’s another demon they’ll try and slay and it’s also something they’ll have to prepare for. Finally, this game opened with the Giants being a -3½-point favorite. By late Monday, the efficient market already got a hold of the “hook” and hammered it down to -3. When the efficient market takes a stance, it’s a big warning sign that it is anything but efficient and it is for that reason among all the others mentioned above that we’ll strongly recommend Big Blue.
N.Y. Giants -3 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)