Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Denver +120 over Tennessee
1:00 PM EST. The Titans made a splash on Sunday Night Football behind rookie quarterback Malik Willis nearly knocking off the mighty Chiefs, in Kansas City, in front of the football world. When a team performs well, and sends a shockwave through the market as a double-digit dog, covers easily and is two plays away from winning outright, it is going to have influence in the market. We laid that heavy lumber with the Chiefs in that game and ripped up that ticket. However, our stance on Tennessee has not changed. The Titans are paper tigers. Frauds.
A prime time loss to Kansas City with Malik Willis at the helm is not going to rob the Titans of their curb appeal. They are still paying out like a broken slot machine with six straight covers, but we’re not buying in. The Titans have played just two teams with a winning record this season. Buffalo and Kansas City. They were frog stomped by Buffalo 41-7. Last Sunday’s 20-17 overtime loss to the Chiefs flattered the guests greatly. The Titans were out-gained by 270 total yards, including 365 through the air. Willis was just 5-for-16 for 80 yards. By contrast, the Titans gave up 446 yards through the air to Patrick Mahomes. Not only that but the Chiefs had more first downs—29-to-9 and dominated the time of possession 41:28-to-26:23. The Titans were out-everything’d by KC. If you just read the boxscore, you would’ve thought that K.C. won 58-7.
The status of Tennessee starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is up in the air again this week, but the reality is, it doesn't matter who starts at QB for the Titans. Tannehill is washed up and Willis is not ready for the role. If the Chiefs were surprised by the Titans' overwhelming rushing attack, the next team to face Tennesee won’t be. They’ve now got the game film on Willis and the 29 different rushing plays his offense ran.
The Broncos sat idle last week after returning from a 21-17 win in London, but their stock is still low after failing to live up to the lofty expectation thrust upon them after trading for future Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson. With the win of the Jags, Denver is still just a humble 3-5 overall and against the spread. When we dive into the goods under the hood, we can see that both the Broncos and Titans are nearly identical in many areas. Denver is the 15th-ranked squad by DVOA, while Tennessee comes in at 17th. Both have estimated win totals of about four, but the Titans have played the second-weakest schedule this season (31st). Tennessee figures to get a rude awakening soon, as they are set to face a second half slate that ranks sixth league wide.
It’s with that in mind that we are going to attack the Titans here again this week. If we were willing to spot double digits (which is not often in our wheelhouse), how can we not come back here and fade them as the chalk? We might not have the Chiefs on our side, but we do have a well-rested Denver team that is taking a ton of negative press. Maybe, just maybe, the Broncs are sick of hearing about their first-half failures. Denver has played in so many close games this season. They lost 17-16 to Seattle, 12-9 (OT) to the Colts, and 19-16 (OT) to the Chargers. That’s three games decided by seven points. By contrast, the Titans beat Vegas 24-22 and Washington 21-17. That’s two games decided by a total of six points. Simply put, the Broncos were tough-luck losers that could easily be 6-2 had a few bounces gone their way. Our attack on Tennessee will be relentless until the prices are corrected. Oh, by the way, the Titans head to Lambeau for Thursday Night Football next week. Just one more reason to avoid them in this spot.
Denver +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)