Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.
L.A. Chargers -3 over Atlanta
1:00 PM EST. The Falcons have finally caught on as a market darling thanks to their 6-2 record against the spread. Truth be told, we like the Falcons, and would normally find value in them as a home underdog, but that is not the case this week. You may see some -2½'s out there but we'll "sell" a half point and take it up to -3 while taking back a few pennies.
We understand that we wagered against the Falcons last week against the Panthers, but that play had more to do with the overvalued Cats than it did the Falcons. For many of the same reasons we are fading Carolina this week, we are fading the Falcons, too. Most notably, the Panthers and Falcons play each other again on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 10. Situationally speaking, this is a tough spot for Atlanta.
That game versus the Panthers was a wild one, with multiple lead changes in the fourth quarter. It was exhausting just to watch, we can’t imagine the toll it took on the players. The final 36 seconds of regulation time were the most stressful, as the Falcons could not stop the Panthers from marching right down the field with no timeouts to score the game tying major. The Falcons would have walked away losers, but the Cats missed the extra point, sending the game to OT, which gave the Falcons life, and the win.
The Chargers are coming off their bye, but the last time they took the field, they were frog-stomped by the Seahawks “at home” in Los Angeles. We use those quotations because there is little about playing at SoFi Stadium that presents a home field advantage for the Chargers.
If you’ve watched the Chargers since leaving San Diego, you may have noticed the fans of the away team are always more vocal than the few Charger loyalists in the stands. It was no different in Week 7, as Seattle’s 12th man was represented in that 37-23 final. The ‘Hawks were also represented by the market, which pounded Seattle in that game, driving the line down from its open of 6½ down to 4½ at close. That's a very significant move. The market faded the Chargers, hard, and it paid off easy. It’s going to be tempting to go back to the well, but we cannot recommend against that play enough.
The Chargers are loaded with talent and have arguably the best young quarterback in this league. We’ve said it time and again that if we had to pick on one pivot to build our team around, Justin Herbert would be it. He is as elite as they come, but he plays for the Chargers, which comes with a pile of baggage, which includes a history of underperforming. We trust that we are getting a bargain basement price on a damn good football team. Now is the time to invest in the Chargers now that they're under-the-radar and not being talked about.
L.A. Chargers -3 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)