Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Arizona -1½ over Seattle
4:05 PM EST. All you need to know about this game is that when these two teams played back in Week 6, the Cardinals were favored in Seattle. Now, just three weeks later, Arizona opened at the same price at home in the desert. If that does not show whose stock is up and whose stock is down, we don’t know what will. However, we know you’d like a little more to chew on so we’ll happily oblige.
Expectations were low in Seattle after it traded away Russell Wilson, but football is a funny game and the Seahawks appear to be a better team without the future Hall of Famer. In case you thought coach Pete Carroll would be modest and humble about his team exceeding expectations, worry not, "We felt like we knew where we could go, and we're getting going. All the people that doubt -- we run the ball too much, you don't understand football and he can't stay up with the new game and all that kind of stuff -- that's a bunch of crap, I'm telling you. We're doing fine. We're all right. I don't mind proving it day in and day out." Never change, Peter.
As much as Peter loves his boy Geno Smith, back in Week 6, the Cardinals handed Smith his toughest outing of the season. Smith was limited to just 197 yards passing, while he was sacked five times. The 19-9 final in favor of Seattle flattered the hosts greatly. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle has played one of the weaker schedules this season, ranking just 26th. When you feast on cupcakes, you eventually get fat. The Seachickens’ wins this season have come against teams that all rank in the bottom half of total team DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
As we pointed out above, the Seahawks' stock is on the uptick, and the Cards are trending downward. Seattle leads the NFC West at the two-month mark. Arizona is in the basement. The narrative is the Seahawks are red hot after knocking off the then one loss Giants, 27-13, last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Cardinals lost and did not cover the 4-point spread against the Vikings and are now looking at another lost season. The contrast in market perception between the ‘Hawks and Cards is as wide as the Grand Canyon, which is why the market pounced when they saw Seattle was the pooch. However, now would not be the time to buy in on the Seachickens. Remember three weeks ago when ya’ll bet Arizona to beat Seattle and lost? Well, it’s time to recoup your money. We repeat, Arizona was a -2½-point choice that day in Seattle and now they’re a lesser price at home. That’s wrong and it’s outstanding value.
Arizona -1½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)