Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Chicago +10 @ Dallas
1:00 PM EST. The Bears were the second biggest underdog on the board in Week 7 in their Monday night matchup in New England. It was a big night, as Patriots coach Bill Belichick was attempting to pass legendary Chicago coach George Halas on the all time wins list. The Bears were defiant, refusing to give up that record setting victory on their watch, downing the Pats, 33-14. The Bears came in last week with a “us against the world attitude”. The local media and everyone has been ripping apart both the Bears and Justin Fields. They responded but they're being even more direspected here. Dallas -10? Really?
We’re not sure if Chicago played the best they could or if New England brought their “C” game but a repeat performance by the Bears offense here is highly unlikely against a Dallas team that was not sharp (offensively) for 3½ quarters against Detroit last week. Dallas covering last week had to be one of the most misleading covers of the season, as the “Boys had no right beating the number. The Cowboys were about to go down three points (spotting -6½) with under 7 minutes to go when the Lions fumbled on the Dallas 1 yard line. The play prior was clearly a TD but the none of 25 coaches in the booth upstairs thought it would be a good idea to get in touch with Dan Campbell down on the field to inform him to throw the challenge flag. Shit that goes on every week is bizzare.
It’s not Dallas’ offense that won them that game last week in Detroit, it was their defense. Dallas has allowed only one team (the unbeaten Eagles) to score as many as 20 points. That was good enough to help the Cowboys win four of five behind backup QB Cooper Rush and allowed Dak Prescott a soft landing last week against the Lions. Dak had to shake off the rust of five weeks of inactivity before finishing with a sort of acceptable 207 yards passing and no picks. Big deal. Tim Tebow could put up 207 yards on Detroit.
Dallas has covered five of its past six and so being late to the party is something we try and avoid. On the other side is the Bears best game of the year in prime time so we are mindful of not reacting to one game, which is also something we try and avoid but here’s what we do know. Dallas had five takeaways last week and still needed a miracle to cover against Detroit. That’s concerning. Dallas is not built to cover big numbers. They are built to hang around and win or lose by one score. They have won by 15, 12 and 14 points in three of their last four against Washington, the Rams and Detroit respectively, which is also very misleading in that all three games were damn close. In fact, Dallas had a lousy 10 first downs and 76 passing yards against the Rams and won by 12. The Rams had 286 passing yards. Against the Commanders it was more of the same, as statistically, Dallas beat Washington at nothing except good fortune, which is not in the box score. Dallas is playing with fire while Justin Fields got a massive shot of confidence last week.
If we look at the two games that Dak Prescott has started this year, both were ugly offensively. Dallas looked horrific in Week 1 in a 19-3 loss to Tampa. Last week, Dallas won the turnover battle by 5 (!) and were last week’s luckiest team to cover. This week, you are going to read or hear about Dallas' great defense and then you'll hear Jimmy Johnson or some other idiot question how the Bears are going to rack up points on this defense. That's X's and O's, which means absloute jack.
Next week Dallas has a bye, so it wouldn’t be a bit of a surprise if their eyes were off the ball here. On bye weeks, teams may choose to practice Monday-Wednesday before players are given the remainder of the week off. Not only are these too many points to be spotting, but Dallas has pulled several horseshoes out of their ass this year and we’re suggesting that their asses will be horseshoe-less here. Upset possibility but way too many points to be spotting with Dallas.
Chicago +10 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)