Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Tampa Bay -2 over Baltimore
8:15 PM EST. The Ravens have little to do with this play, but we can use their relatively high profile public appeal to our advantage, as they are much more trustworthy than many other clubs that could have been in this spot. Because this is not a fade on Baltimore, let’s get to the main course here—the Bradys of Tampa Bay.
Is this rock bottom for Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr.? If you’ve tuned into any NFL coverage this week, that is the narrative. Losing as a 13-point favorite against a Panthers' team that has looked like it's thrown in the towel, as it unloads anyone of real value before the trade deadline. Gone are Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. Star wideout D.J. Moore could be next. Former head coach Matt Rhule was canned before mid-season, which is one of the pillars one could lean on to make a case a franchise is in disarray. Did any of that matter last Sunday? Nope. The Panthers went gate to wire against the G.O.A.T. and made him look like a regular Joe Nobody.
We’ve discussed Tom Brady’s radio show in this space this season and we will once again recommend it because he doesn’t hold back very much when it comes to what is happening on the field. Dude will take anyone to task and has multiple times this season. That’s what happens when you are in the middle of a shitstorm both personally and professionally. Brady doesn’t talk about his personal problems, but you can’t get away from the story. This week, Brady said that he was glad that it was a short week with a high profile game because nobody has any time to worry about last week.
They were embarrassed. He was embarrassed. However, as we discuss weekly, there are dozens of plays in these games that can change everything. For the Bucs, it was the first big play attempt where Brady hit a wide open Mike Evans in stride, but Evans bumbled the pass. The Bucs would punt on their first possession instead of putting up a major. That misstep set the tone for the game. However, that’s not the story. Scott Hanson, as much as we love him on NFL RedZone, didn’t harp on that one play. Hanson could only ponder, for hours, if this was the lowest point of Brady’s days in Tampa. That much is clear. One could argue this is the lowest point of his professional career. We don’t like the aged Brady. He was once great, but now he “is what he is.” That may be cliché, but Brady himself is a living, middle-aged cliché, no? We trust that Brady ain't as good as he once was, but tonight, it matters not, as the betting world is starting to embrace that he's not the same anymore.
The media has massive influence on the market. We were singing this tune way before the media was. In other words, we were ahead of the curve but that is no longer the case. If you fade Brady and the Bucs this week and play Baltimore, you may cash your ticket but you are too late to that party. Once the market jumps off, that is usually a good sign to jump on and we'll apply that here Brady's stock hasn't been this low since he came in after Drew Bledsoe was injured in the second game of the season way back in 2001. As much as we hate to, it's time to buy Thomas Edward once again.
Tampa Bay -2 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)