Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:30 PM EST and odds are subject to change.
Pinnacle has the best price here with the Eagles -3 +108. You can also get +102 at SIA.
Philadelphia -3 +108
8:30 PM EST. So much has happened since the last time these two teams took the field. Let’s quickly recap Week 1. First up is Minnesota. Its win will resonate in the market both for the result (they made the “other #12 G.O.A.T. look like a fool) and at the pay window, where the Vikings cashed a lot of tickets. When you pay out, you make friends very quickly in a space that values wins more than anything else.
The Eagles, you may remember, played the Lions in Detroit. Philadelphia got out to a big lead and was able to hold on to it until the fourth quarter. When the final frame started, the Eagles were up 38-21 on the heels of a Boston Scott TD run. What happened next is something we’ve seen often already this season, whether intentional or not, the team up double digits takes its foot off the gas. We saw it in the Ravens/Dolphins, Rams/Falcons, Cardinals/Raiders and the Lions/Commanders games. Washington did not sneak in the back door for the cover like the Lions did in Week 1, but it very well could have. Meanwhile, the Falcons covered, and the Fish and Cards won outright.
Moving to tonight, we are simply going to trust that there is going to be an overreaction to the Vikings' big win over the Packers, especially in light of Aaron Rodgers and company going bananas against the Bears on Sunday Night Football in front of the football world. That most recent result will resonate as well. If you’ve listened to the talking heads today, they are using that Packers blowout to make a case that the Vikings are “for real.” Meanwhile, the Eagles, “have some issues,” on defense.
From just strictly a numbers game, the fact the Vikings were a -2½-point pooch last week at home against the Packers and are now in a similar range on the back of that market impacting win on the road in Philly, a team that could not hold on to multiple 17-point leads and almost lost to the Lions is going to look like low hanging fruit, but that is not the case. It’s a really bad number that is a major overreaction to last week’s results, and what happened yesterday.
For some perspective, the Eagles were spotting a touchdown at close in the Motor City. Now Philly is half that number at home against a team that might not be any better than the Lions? That’s not right. To further the point that results have a huge influence in the market, we only have to look at the line that Bet365 has posted on the Lions/Vikings game next week. Minnesota is a 7-point home favorite in that game. That is an absurd number. Meanwhile, the Eagles are just -4 at Washington.
If one wanted to be proactive, jumping on the Lions and Eagles next week would be prudent, if one figured the Eagles were a short-priced home favorite tonight. We’re going to swallow these points with no hesitation. We’re also going to pump that number up to -3 +108, which is available at Pinnacle, as we refuse to lay even a nickel of juice on a game that isn’t going to be close. We hope.
Philadelphia -3 +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)