Today's Free Picks for
bet365 operates pursuant to an agreement with iGaming Ontario.
Posted at 11:30 AM EST and odds are subject to change.
The best number here is at Pinnacle with the Cowboys +7 +100
Dallas +7 +100 over Cincinnati
4:25 PM EST. Do you really think we like Dallas? Nobody likes Dallas. If you watched the prime time game on Sunday (of course you did), the Cowboys’ 19-3 loss was no offensive springboard. It was a frightening glimpse into how limited this group has become and that was before the team lost Dak Prescott, who suffered a fractured thumb on his throwing hand in the closing minutes of Sunday’s loss and will not start this week.
Prescott completed less than 50% of his passes with an interception and two sacks before he was forced to the sidelines. His quarterback rating was 47.2. Ceedee Lamb? He caught just two of the 11 passes thrown in his direction. Overall, the Cowboys were penalized 10 times for 73 yards. With close to 100,000 people at AT&T Stadium, the ‘Boys Week 1 performance was worse than the Jets’ performance.
On Sunday night, when betting lines for the following week are posted, Cincinnati/Dallas was off the board due to Prescott’s status. On Monday, the Bengals opened as a -6-point favorite and it took about 4 seconds for the efficient market to get a hold of it and bet it up -7½ or -8 by Tuesday and up to the price you see here.
That is what we refer to as an overreaction but that overreaction goes well beyond Zak Prescott being out. In that regard, trust us when we pound into your head that oddsmakers were fully aware Prescott was out when they opened at -6. The market thinks otherwise. Thus, you have Dallas’ rancid performance combined with Zak Prescott being out, combined with Dallas being featured on Sunday Night Football and looking like rat shit. Whether you bet on or against Dallas last week, if you watched that game, there is almost no chance you or anyone else will come back on them this week. ZERO CHANCE. If this line was -12, you still wouldn’t bet Dallas. How could you? How could we? The Cowboys were the only team that didn't score a touchdown in Week 1. If you bet on Dallas you may as well have resorted to drinking lighter fluid while watching that horror unfold.
Forget that the Bengals offensive line improvement did not show up on Sunday. They brought in four new starters, and while it figured to upgrade the blocking, it didn't happen last week. The unit gave up seven sacks of Joe Burrow, who threw four interceptions and fumbled twice. On the plus, the Bengals threw for 338 yards, and the rushing offense looked good at least in spurts. They also lost Tee Higgins to a concussion. The offense looked rusty with some growing pains for the new O-line. No reason for alarm is the consensus and we’re not here to argue otherwise.
For all you new bettors out there and veteran bettors too. We urge you not to overreact to injuries. They are factored into the line and you can double that sentiment when the starting QB is replaced. We also urge you not to overreact to one performance or what you saw in Week 1. The streets of Vegas are lined with ripped-up tickets of injury chasers that thought they had an edge and recency bias bets that failed to cash. This game checks both those boxes. Before the season starts, you could’ve found dozens of sportsbooks that were offering up this Week 2 matchup. At that time, Dallas was a one-point favorite. The injury to Zak and the performance of the Cowboys is going to swing that number almost 10 points when a starting QB injury is generally worth about 4 points. Therefore, in the spirit of not making predictions and playing over/under-reactions + value, there are two choices here-----either lay off the game or grab the insane number of inflated points.
Dallas +7 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)