Cleveland @ Carolina
Cleveland -105 over Carolina

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Posted at 11:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Cleveland -105 over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. This game is a perfect example of why we reserve our official plays until Sunday. There are many moving parts and we like to see the whole picture. With that in mind. We've switched gears on this game and are now backing Browns.

The Baker Bowl is here and there might not be any more sizzle on a single game in Week 1 than this one. To get you up to date, former Browns pivot Baker Mayfield was cast off from Cleveland and sent packing after the Browns acquired Deshaun Watson from Houston. Watson has been a dark cloud over the Browns this offseason, which has the market down on them, but Watson won't be around until December, so we're not going to worry about him.

Is there a QB with more to prove than Mayfield this season? Not if you watched the talking head this morning. Blah, blah, blah Baker this. Blah, blah, blah Baker that. Blah, blah, blah, the Browns did Baker dirty. These hot takes only fuel the fire that the Browns made a bad call. The pundits are calling this a "revenge" game for Baker and his new team. That's an angle the market eats up.

Now, what about the Browns? Well, nobody in this market wants anything to do with this team. We get it, we've been hard on the Brownies for their offseason decisions as much as anyone, but it doesn't really matter what we "like" or "think". We aren't in the business of trying to figure out who's going to be out for "revenge". However, to that point, one has to figure the Browns want to get their shots in on Baker just as much as he wants to get his in on them.

From a pure market standing perspective, Cleveland might as well be a steaming dog turd. The interest in the Browns today is somewhere between slim and none. That has perked our interest. Perception is everything, and the perception is the Browns are a mess, have been a mess for years, and are going to be a mess this season. One that they created with the Watson signing.

We don't know if the Browns are going to be a disaster this year, but we are going to use that market perception to our advantage today. This is still a very talented team that was held back by their quarterback. Jacoby Brissett might not be sexy, but he is capable and he has weapons around him. All the pressure here is on Baker to prove the Browns made the wrong choice by cutting him. We're going to find out if they did.

Our Pick

Cleveland -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)

Leans & analysis over