Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis
Indianapolis -3 -110 over Tampa Bay

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Posted Friday Aug 26 at 4:00 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Indianapolis -3 over Tampa Bay

Saturday, Aug 27

7:30 PM EST. This game opened with the Colts as 5½-point favorites, but the efficient market thought that was just too much and now this line is down to where you see it now. Maybe we were poisoned after watching the Buccaneers play a lifeless, paint-by-numbers, preseason game in Tennessee last week, but we see no scenario where Tampa turns up the heat now. Why would they? These teams are just trying to get through this last week unscathed.

The Colts have lost both their preseason games, but the level and intensity in which they played cannot be ignored. In preseason Week 1, Indianapolis went toe-to-toe with the win at all cost Bills, dropping a 27-24 decision. The Colts actually had a 24-10 lead at the 10:30 mark of the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the pedal. The Bills would score 17 straight points and kick the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Last week, the Colts hosted the “Danny-try hard” Lions, who again played that game as if their lives depended on it. The Colts and Lions went back and forth in what was a damn fun ball game to watch, especially this time of year. Each team traded scored all game long with the Colts making the game 27-26 with just 38 seconds to go. Rather than play for overtime, Indy went for two, but failed. It was 100% the right call, but in this market, winning and losing are all that matter.

This has to be one of the better plays on this final preseason weekend. The Bucs have been sleeping, while the Colts are already in the trenches playing down and dirty with two teams that badly wanted to win. Even if the Colts aren’t fully invested, their baseline intensity should be enough to blow the doors of the Bucs and easily cover this deflated number.

Our Pick

Indianapolis -3 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

Tampa Bay +5 -101 over Philadelphia
Carolina +4½ -103 over Seattle
Detroit -3 -113 over Atlanta
Denver +215 over Miami
Dallas/Arizona under 43½ -110
Cleveland -3½ +100 over Tennessee
Green Bay -1 -110 over New Orleans
Chicago +12½ -110 over Kansas City
Pittsburgh +2½ +112 over Las Vegas
Early leans & analysis Wk 3 over