Early leans & analysis Preseason Wk 1
Early leans & analysis

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Posted at 2:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

NFL Preseason Week 1

What you see below is a sample of what we do each and every week during the NFL Season. On Friday's we will post our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays on the day of the game, usually Sundays. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

Friday, August 12

Jacksonville +1½ over Cleveland

7:00 PM EST. Rarely do we recommend spotting road points, and that does not change just because this is the preseason. Yes, we know that Deshaun Watson is going to make an appearance for his new team, but that does not excite us. Watson hasn’t sniffed the field since 2020 and he is going to miss significant time this season, so why bother throwing him out there tonight?

In case you’ve missed it, the league had planned to suspend Watson for the entire 2022 season in light of his many, many sexual assault lawsuits, but he and his agent are trying to get that down to only eight games and a $5-million fine. Good luck with that, as Uncle Roger stated, “There were multiple violations here, and they were egregious, and that it was predatory behavior".

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are starting anew, again, as Urban Meyer was fired after an embarrassing season, both professionally and personally. Remember Meyer left his team after a Thursday Night Football loss to go hang out with co-eds in Columbus, his old college stomping grounds. Solid leadership, coach.

The Jaguars have already taken the field this year, after playing in last week’s Hall of Fame game, where they were downed by Las Vegas, 27-11. However, neither of the former Clemson Tigers (quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne) played in that game. Both are building blocks for the Jags this season. With one game under their belts, the Jags ought to be a live pooch here at home. Recommendation: Jacksonville +1½

N.Y. Jets +1 over Philadelphia

7:30 PM EST. It’s going to take some time to get the stank of gang green off these Jets, but with quarterback Zach Wilson and a cast of talented young players around him, they appear to be on the right track. Wilson and company will get a series or two tonight if we are to believe head coach Robert Saleh, “If they put together a good first series, we’ll call it a day, if not, we’ll just go out there and try to get a certain number of plays.’’

The Jets are saying all the right things after a grueling training camp with new defensive tackle Solomon Thomas chomping at the bit to get on the field, “(I’m) excited about the opportunity to showcase our talent and showcase what we've been working on”. So too is wide receiver Corey Davis, “I'm excited to get in front of some new faces, some new numbers, and play ball”.

On the Philadelphia side, the addition of A.J. Brown has the Eagles flying high, as he gives Jalen Hurts a legit #1 target, something he didn’t have last year. However, Brown may see a hungry rookie in Jets’ cornerback Sauce Gardner standing across from him. Gardner was the #4 overall pick and will be looking to make a statement. Brown and Hurts won’t play for more than a series or two, but Gardner will be out there longer trying to make life miserable for whoever the Eagles send out after them. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +1

Cincinnati -1½ over Arizona

7:30 PM EST. If you are looking for starters to see action, this is not the game for you, as both the Cardinals and Bengals made it known that their top dogs are not going to see the field tonight.

Joe Burrow, post appendectomy, will not play. Neither will Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, or Trey Hendrickson. Despite the lack of star power, it’s not going to take much to get the Cincy crowd into this game, as they’ve been waiting to cheer their AFC champion Bengals for six months. Winning will do that. Welcome to the jungle. On the Arizona side, Kyler Murray will not suit up.

We have seen enough from the Cardinals on the road in the Kliff Kingsbury era to know it's a crapshoot whether or not they’ll show up if the game DOES matter. Think back to that whooping the Cards took in Detroit in Week 15 last season. If the Cards give two shakes, show up, and win this game so be it. However, that scenario is highly unlikely. We see no reason to move in on anything here because we have no f**king clue which, if any one of these teams will show up. Recommendation: Cincinnati -1½

Saturday, August 12

Chicago +1 over Kansas City

1:00 PM EST. If you are wondering why this line moved from the Bears being favored on their home turf to now being a small underdog, look no further than the status of Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has decided to “buck the trend” and play in Week 1 of the preseason.

Why? Well, let’s ask head coach Andy Reid, “I think it's good to get the juices going, get yourself out there, even if it's a limited amount of plays”. We’ll check in with Andy if any of these Bears happened to get a good lick in on his franchise pivot. To his credit, Mahomes, who was hobbled last year, is into that possibility, “Once you get hit one time, you see what it is. Then you're good to go”. Hey, we love a tough quarterback, but there is a time and a place for everything. Week 1 of the preseason, when you’re a Super Bowl favorite, is not it, Patrick.

After firing former coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace after a 6-11 season, the Bears have been compared to a flaming dumpster. Expectations are low, the excitement around quarterback Justin Fields is limited and there isn’t a pundit alive that is predicting that Chicago can compete in 2022.

The Bears have heard it all this offseason, which should have them coming into this game with a huge chip on their shoulders. With a new regime in place, it’s fair game when it comes to making this team. That competition might make the hits a little harder and the push on the line a little stronger. To further that point, this game will also be the featured contest nationally on NFL Network, thus, these Bears know all eyes will be on them. Recommendation: Chicago +1

Seattle +3½ over Pittsburgh

7:00 PM EST. These are not your daddy’s Seahawks, as former franchise pivot Russell Wilson was sent packing to Denver. With Wilson gone, there is a need for a new starting quarterback with Geno Smith and Drew Lock battling over the gig. That competition should serve the Seahawks well, at least in this preseason, as there will be no wasted downs. The competition has already started with Lock throwing for 185 yards in a practice game last week, while Smith put up just 94. Third on the Seattle depth chart is Jacob Eason, who proved himself capable in last year’s preseason, playing in all three games for the Colts, where he went 41-for-62 for 389 yards. When he eventually takes over in this game, the Seahawks will have a competent pivot. Can one say the same for the Steelers?

Since 2004, the only starting quarterback the Steelers have known was Ben Roethlisberger. Here in 2022, that job is open. Competing for the gig are veterans Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph, as well as rookie Kenny Pickett. The 2022 class of quarterbacks was not as strong as years past, but Pickett was thought to be the most “NFL ready” of the bunch. Truth be told, we actually like Mitch Trubisky and think he could thrive if given the chance, but the temptation to start a high-profile rookie might be too much.

Both Steelers' coach Mike Tomlin and the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll coach these preseason games like they are life and death. Tomlin is 34-24 lifetime, while Caroll is 26-17. With no clear edge in that department, we’d lean to taking back this pile of points rather than spot them. Recommendation: Seattle +3½

Tampa Bay +1½ over Miami

7:30 PM EST. There is a perception in the market that the Buccaneers do not give a hoot about the preseason, and why would they? Tampa has an aged quarterback in Tom Brady, a talented, but often injured receiving core, and a defense that is stout, but not getting any younger. It’s Super Bowl or bust for Tampa, but with former coach Bruce Arians making his way to the front office and Todd Bowles to take over the reins, there is a good chance that Bowles will want to put his mark on this team. In Week 1 of this preseason, Bowles-coached teams are 3-1 lifetime.

There is hope in Miami for the first time in a while, as the Dolphins did everything they could to help quarterback Tua Tagovailoa be successful here in 2022, that is, once they stopped trying to trade him for Deshaun Watson. Maybe Tua will forgive and forget, or maybe he won’t. We’ll see, but with the addition of Tyreek Hill, there is an expectation that Tua takes the next step. We're going to have to wait and see what that connection might look like, as Tagovailoa is not expected to play tonight.

If you’ve been following the Fish this offseason, you’ve read that new head coach Mike McDaniel has clashed with some popular players in the Miami dressing room, namely tight end Mike Gesicki, who one could argue was the best offensive Dolphin last season. He was so good the Dolphins used the franchise tag on him.

That $10.9 million 1-year deal is not pocket change, so why aren’t the Fish building some of their offense around him? Gesicki saw action in just two plays during yesterday’s joint practice with Tampa. McDaniel tried to defuse the negative chatter by suggesting that when he was in San Francisco, George Kittle didn’t always see a ton of targets. Yeah, we’re not buying that. The Dolphins may already have a controversy on their hands, and the new regime has yet to coach a game. Hot start. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +1½

New Orleans -1 over Houston

8:00 PM EST. There is a new bench boss in New Orleans, as head coach Dennis Allen takes over for Sean Payton. Allen is not new to the Saints, as he was Payton’s defensive coordinator for six years. Not much is expected to change gameplan-wise, as Allen is committed to the “Saints way” developed by Payton. It is because of that consistency that we are a little bullish on the Saints heading into the season. Perhaps most interesting is the Saints’ battle for the starting left tackle spot, which pits incumbent James Hurst against first-round pick Trevor Penning.

The Saints aren’t the only team that looked inside their organization for their new head coach, as the Texans did the same and hired Lovie Smith. Smith was best known for his days as the Bears’ head coach from 2004 to 2012. Lovie had a two-year stint in Tampa in 2014-15 as well. As a head coach, Smith has gone 24-24 in the preseason, including a 3-5 run with the Bucs.

The Texans are in rebuild mode and are expected to give the young players on their roster a long look tonight. There are many jobs open. Two rookies we will not see include first-round rookie guard Kenyon Green and first-rounder cornerback Derek Stingley. Both are expected to miss this game with injuries. There are too many holes for Houston to fill, this one could get ugly. Recommendation: New Orleans -1

L.A. Chargers -3½ over L.A. Rams

10:00 PM EST. Last season, the Rams went 0-3 in the preseason and head coach Sean McVay didn’t even try to hide the fact he could not be bothered with these games. The result? The Rams are Super Bowl champions, need we say more?

Meanwhile, across the hall, the Chargers are headed into year two of the Brandon Staley era. Staley appears to have a franchise QB in his back pocket and with that comes high expectations. Last season, Staley took a similar approach to McVey and did not play Justin Herbert or his other top stars in any of their three contests, going 1-2.

It’s going to be tough to spot points here given everything we know, but maybe that’s the point. Oddsmakers could have made this game a coin flip and not likely swayed a bet, yet the Chargers are -3½ point favorites. Sometimes the line dictates the play. It’s Chargers or nothing. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers -3½



Our Pick

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