Pinnacle +551  BET365 +500 Sportsinteraction +500  888Sport  +500

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Penn St +551 to Win National Championship

We initially considered playing Penn State outright in the Orange Bowl against Notre Dame but found greater value in taking the Nittany Lions to win the College Football Playoff outright at +500. If Penn State gets past the Irish, this ticket puts us in an excellent position to profit.

Notre Dame, the nation’s best covering team, is riding high after a jaw-dropping win over Georgia, a program widely regarded as the best in the country. Despite this, the opening line for this game is identical to their matchup against Georgia (-1), and the efficient market has already jumped on the Irish.

While Notre Dame earned its victory, Georgia’s self-inflicted errors contributed significantly. From red-zone turnovers to special teams mishaps, the Bulldogs handed Notre Dame key opportunities. In contrast, Penn State has quietly dominated its schedule, overshadowed by the market’s obsession with Texas, Ohio State, and the Cinderella narrative surrounding Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions are a nightmare matchup for the Irish: a team with a comparable defensive profile, a better pass rush, a more dynamic quarterback, and a deeper backfield. Were it not for Notre Dame’s ATS record, Penn State might even be favored.

If Penn State defeats Notre Dame, they would likely be three-point underdogs against Texas or +125 on the moneyline, and seven-point underdogs (+235 ML) against Ohio State. The market has already crowned the Texas-Ohio State winner as the champion, but Penn State can compete with the Longhorns and would relish a rematch against the Buckeyes, feeling their regular-season loss was self-inflicted.

A futures play on Penn State to win it all nets five units, compared to a combined 3.5 units from individual game bets. Should Penn State advance to the title game, there will be ample opportunities to hedge or free-roll. If combined with the Texas futures play, both advancing ensures a minimum three-unit profit. This strategic position is precisely why these two futures plays are compelling investments.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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