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Posted at 8:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Bahamas Bowl

Liberty +186 ML over Buffalo

Thomas Robinson Stadium – Nassau, Bahamas

11:00 AM ET. Ah, the Bahamas Bowl—an under-the-radar gem of the college football postseason that always seems to deliver chaos, drama, and the occasional last-second miracle. It’s also a game that no team pictures itself in at the start of the season, including the Liberty Flames, who likely envisioned far greener pastures than this tropical detour when the year began.

The market’s short memory is our friend here. Liberty opened the season as a runaway favorite to win the Conference USA Championship and was touted by many as a potential New Year’s Six representative from the Group of Five. Fast forward to now, and their season reads like a tragic tale of missed opportunities and self-inflicted wounds. The Flames fell to winless Kennesaw State as a 26.5-point favorite, dropped a crucial game to Sam Houston State, and needed overtime to escape UMass and FIU. Those stumbles not only derailed their lofty goals but also tanked their ATS credibility, as Liberty limped to an abysmal 3-8 record against the number.

Therein lies the opportunity. The narrative around Liberty is one of disappointment and underachievement, creating a buy-low spot on a program that still possesses underlying talent. Opt-outs and transfers have decimated their roster—headlined by the absence of QB Kaidon Salter and RB Quinton Cooley among 17 others. Yet despite the turmoil, the Flames were initially priced as a slight favorite before flipping to a live dog. That shift alone speaks volumes, as the oddsmakers remain hesitant to sell Liberty short, even in their diminished state.

On the flip side, Buffalo is riding high into this matchup. The Bulls closed the season with a four-game winning streak, going 3-1 ATS during that stretch—covering as many games in the last month as Liberty managed all year. The market loves a hot hand, and Buffalo fits the bill. Add in the fact that the Bulls are at full strength and supposedly “more motivated” to win this game, and it’s easy to see why they’ve attracted the action. However, backing Buffalo now feels like arriving at the party just as the lights come on—it’s too late.

The truth is, this line tells us everything we need to know. Despite all the turmoil, Liberty is priced as a legitimate threat here. If the market truly believed the Bulls wanted this more or were in a far better position, they’d be laying a bigger number. Instead, we’re looking at a coin-flip scenario that’s shaded toward the dog. That’s our cue to fade the noise and take the Flames outright in what could be the final chaotic twist of a season full of them.

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