Pinnacle +14 -113  BET365 +14 -110 Sportsinteraction +14 -110  888Sport  +14 -110

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

North Texas +14 over Texas State

Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas, TX

SERVPro First Responder Bowl

4:00 PM ET. Perhaps they should rename the First Responder Bowl the “All-Texas Bowl,” as we’ve got two Lone Star State programs squaring off deep in the heart of Texas, but enough about geography. The Bobcats enter this game riding a wave of public sentiment, and it’s not hard to see why. Texas State is the feel-good story, playing in just its second bowl game ever while achieving back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in over 15 years. Sprinkle in a near-upset against Arizona State earlier in the season, and their narrative writes itself. The Bobcats’ battle with the Sun Devils has aged like fine wine in the eyes of the market, especially after Arizona State pushed Texas to the brink in the Peach Bowl. This kind of transitive property logic is catnip for bettors and the media alike.

Meanwhile, North Texas comes into this game with all the curb appeal of an empty parking lot. The Mean Green crawled to bowl eligibility with a pedestrian 6-6 record, snapping a four-game losing streak with an uninspiring win over a three-win Temple squad just to punch their ticket. Against the number, UNT has been an outright disaster, failing to cover in five straight games and going 4-8 on the season. Add to that a six-game bowl losing streak spanning more than a decade, and you have a team the market wouldn’t touch with a ten-foot pole.

As we’ve said countless times before, it’s precisely these unsexy teams that offer the most value. The market has inflated this line because no one wants any part of North Texas. However, motivation often trumps narrative in bowl games, and the Mean Green have plenty of it. Breaking a decade-long bowl drought would be a significant achievement for a program looking to turn the corner, and we can expect UNT to leave it all on the field. The Bobcats are in uncharted territory here as double-digit favorites on a national stage, which is a role far better suited for seasoned programs, not one riding on fumes from a few feel-good headlines.

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